Retail sales in the United States are expected to grow at a slower pace this year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said Wednesday, as fears of a recession and tremors in the banking industry cast a shadow over a recovery in consumer spending.

The trade body said it expects retail sales to rise between 4% and 6% to $5.13 trillion to $5.23 trillion, in comparison to 7% growth in 2022 to $4.9 trillion.

Non-store and online sales in particular are expected to grow between 10% and 12% to a range of $1.41 trillion to $1.43 trillion, NRF added.

"While it is still too early to know the full effects of the banking industry turmoil, consumer spending is looking quite good for the first quarter of 2023," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, pointing to upsides from a strong labor market, wage growth and savings built over the pandemic.

"We expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, (but) it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.