Tags: Q2 | GDP | growth | 0.9%

Atlanta Fed's Forecasting Model Puts Q2 GDP Growth at 0.9 Percent

By    |   Friday, 01 May 2015 09:40 AM EDT

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP forecasting model, GDPNow, was almost spot on in predicting first-quarter growth of just 0.2 percent.

And if it's right about the second quarter, investors might want to head for the hills. That's because the model's first projection for this quarter is a paltry expansion of 0.9 percent.

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is predicted to be 2.7 percent in the second quarter. In the first quarter, PCE was 1.9 percent, down from 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, several financial luminaries offered their own dose of economic pessimism at the Milken Institute Global Conference this week, as reported by Fortune's Chris Matthews.
  • Former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, now president of private equity titan Warburg Pincus, offered this view on where the economy is headed in coming years: "we live in a scary, dark, messy, and uncertain world. That is the normal state of mankind."
  • Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, reiterated his concern that economies still aren't strong enough to thrive in the absence of support from central banks. "While the Fed is easing its foot off the accelerator a little, [other central banks] are pressing their foot even harder. So collectively, we're still in the central bank trade," he said. As a result, it's likely "we're going to have a major adjustment" in the next two years, El-Erian says.
  • Real estate legend Sam Zell addressed the issue of slowing population growth in many developed nations. "This is the worst demographic situation we've had in 500 years," he notes.
But fear not, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, international business editor of The Daily Telegraph. It's not that he denies the magnitude of the problem.

"The U.S. economy has suddenly stalled. A blizzard of shockingly weak figures raise the awful possibility that America's six-year growth cycle since the Great Recession has already rolled over, with unsettling implications for the world," he writes.

Referring to former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers' warning of secular stagnation, Evans-Pritchard, says, "We should not ignore his warnings lightly. Yet for once I am an optimist, clinging to the belief that the U.S. will recover from the strange air pocket of early 2015."

And what fuels his optimism?
  • "Fiscal headwinds have abated.
  • "Money supply is igniting.
  • "Commercial and industrial loans are growing even faster.
  • "The New York Fed says the post-Lehman purge of household debt has 'largely run its course.'
  • "The overhang of unsold houses on the market has essentially been cleared, and hot spots are booming."

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The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP forecasting model, GDPNow, was almost spot on in predicting first-quarter growth of just 0.2 percent.
Q2, GDP, growth, 0.9%
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2015-40-01
Friday, 01 May 2015 09:40 AM
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