The price of a basket of basic dinner foods such as corn, rice, sugar and oats is up 5 percent on year and climbing, according to government data.

A component of the inflation rate defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as "total expenditures for food at grocery stores" rose 4.8 percent during the 12 months ending in June, CNBC reports.

In May’s report, that figured had posted a 4.4 percent annual increase, the largest since 2004 excluding a temporary spike around the 2008 credit crisis.

“In our latest pricing surveys across discounters and supermarkets, we have seen a sharp increase in prices across channels," says Stephen Grambling, a Goldman Sachs retail analyst, according CNBC.

Because of rising agriculture prices, "we remain concerned that food inflation could move beyond 5 percent year-over-year in the back-half, which may spark a more promotional environment and pressure margins."

Global food prices cooled for just a bit, but some experts say a fresh spike is on the way thanks in part to a series of heat waves searing crops.

Prices had fallen on talk that grain shortages were easing.

Long-term shortages, however, may be here for a while.

"The bottom line remains that on a worldwide basis, the interest for these commodities, grains in particular, has evolved over the last five to seven years such that we need big crops all the time," says Bruce Scherr, chief executive of Informa Economics, according to Reuters.