During the last crisis, economist Nouriel Roubini earned the nickname “Dr. Doom” for his ominous prognostications about the economy and financial system.
While he prefers the moniker “Dr. Realist,” Roubini is once again extremely negative.
In the recent "Odd Lots" podcast, he explains why he sees a poor recovery, then a bout of inflation, and then ultimately a depression in the wake of this crisis.
Roubini echoed similar themes in his recent syndicated column about 10 risks that mean the 2020s could see a Greater Depression.
While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy.
He contends that since the financial crisis of 2008, the world has been drifting towards a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks.
From massive increases in fiscal deficits as high as 10% of GDP or more, to worsening relations between China and the U.S., he gave 10 economic factors pointing to financial trouble ahead, according to the economist.
"Recurring epidemics (HIV since the 1980s, SARS in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, MERS in 2011, Ebola in 2014-16) are, like climate change, essentially man-made disasters, born of poor health and sanitary standards, the abuse of natural systems, and the growing interconnectivity of a globalized world," he explained.
Pandemics and the many morbid symptoms of climate change will become more frequent, severe, and costly in the years ahead, he warned.
"These risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair," he warned.
"By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression."
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