The bull market for U.S. stocks, which began in March 2009, is now the third longest in history, trailing only the rallies of 1987-2000 and 1949-1956.
But New York Times columnist Gretchen Morgenson sees signs that the good times may be coming to an end.
"Doubts may be creeping into the notion that companies with no earnings should trade at sky-high valuations,"
she writes.
"An aging bull market often coincides with investors’ starting to question these kinds of assumptions, strategists say."
She cites star newsletter publisher James Stack, president of InvesTech Research, who is concerned about shrinking market breadth.
And Morgenson spoke to Francis Gannon, co-chief investment officer at Royce Funds, who notes that one-third of Russell 2000 companies are unprofitable, the largest portion ever in a non-recessionary period.
“The laws of finance have been suspended for quite some time,” he said. "Now this is starting to crack. I think we are on a road to normalization.”
As for valuations, the S&P 500 carried a trailing price-earnings ratio of 21.7 Friday, up from 18.5 a year earlier, according to Birinyi Associates.
Meanwhile, London Daily Telegraph columnist John Ficenec is concerned about more than U.S. stocks. Global central bank easing has run amuck, and the results won't be pretty, he says.
"From China to Brazil, the central banks have lost control, and at the same time the global economy is grinding to a halt,"
he writes. "It is only a matter of time before stock markets collapse under the weight of their lofty expectations and record valuations."
He offers several signs of doom.
- "China slowdown." The government reported economic growth of 7 percent for the second quarter, conveniently matching its target. But that number is vastly overstated, economists say. Some estimate the true figure is 3 to 4 percent. "The Chinese economy has now hit a brick wall," Ficenec states.
- "Commodity collapse." Broad commodity indices have hit 13-year lows. Gold prices have dropped to a five-year nadir, and oil prices have slumped to a six-year low. "The oil price is the purest barometer of world growth as it is the fuel that drives nearly all industry and production around the globe," Ficenec says.
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