Tags: Morgan Stanley | Pradhan | taper | tantrum

Morgan Stanley's Pradhan: It's Time to Fear 'Triple Taper Tantrum'

Thursday, 11 June 2015 07:00 AM EDT

Remember the "taper tantrum" during the spring and summer of 2013, when U.S. bond yields soared after then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned central bank would begin tapering its economic stimulus program?

Well a reprise may be coming, as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates later this year, says Manoj Pradhan, a global economist at Morgan Stanley.

"Why are we worried not just about a taper tantrum but a triple taper tantrum? Because central banks do not have a contingency plan for success," he writes in the Financial Times.

"Even partial success — stabilization of growth rather than an outright revival — could be enough to derail their best-laid plans for a smooth exit from excessive monetary accommodation."

Triple apparently refers to the United States, Europe and Japan.

"A combination of data in the U.S. that are good enough to warrant policy rate rises and a stabilization of growth in the euro area and Japan will probably be enough to raise the risk of a triple taper tantrum," Pradhan says.

The Fed has kept its federal funds rate target at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

Meanwhile, the country's monetary base – currency in circulation plus bank reserves – exploded to $4.08 trillion as of May 15, thanks to the Federal Reserve's massive easing program, $2.6 trillion of the total sits in excess bank reserves.

And that's a problem, says Robert Auerbach, professor of public affairs at the University of Texas.

"The $2.6 trillion is the monetary time bomb that they [the Fed] cannot burst into the economy rapidly without causing inflation and severe financial problems," he writes on The Huffington Post. "If the Yellen Fed raises interest rates, they must pay the banks more money to hold on to their $2.6 trillion."

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last month that the Fed will likely start raising interest rates later this year, and some economists expect a move in September.

"The correct policy for the Fed is to slowly reduce interest paid to banks on their excess reserves and carefully raise the federal funds rate" if economic growth matches the IMF estimate of 2.5 percent this year, Auerbach says.

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StreetTalk
A reprise of the "taper tantrum" triggered by former Fed chief Ben Bernanke may be coming as the central prepares to raise interest rates later this year, says Manoj Pradhan, a global economist at Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley, Pradhan, taper, tantrum
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2015-00-11
Thursday, 11 June 2015 07:00 AM
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