Global markets are girding for another roller coaster week, but this time with an oil-price war to add to the distress.
Saudi Arabia fired the first shots on Saturday, slashing official selling prices after talks last week between the world’s leading producers ended with no agreement on output cuts. Middle East stock markets went into freefall Sunday following oil’s sharpest slump since 2008, setting the tone for Asian markets when they open Monday.
The prospect of competing price-cuts by the biggest crude producers and the looming economic slowdown are stoking anxiety in a world already on edge over the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak. As of Sunday, about half of the world’s countries have reported cases of the virus according to the World Health Organization. The global death count outside of China headed toward 500.
“This is a very nasty shock to an already stressed market,” said Stephen Innes, the Bangkok-based chief market strategist at Axicorp. “Compounding the Covid-19 no-endgame-in-sight narrative with probable value-at-risk implosion triggered by the fall in oil prices should give global investors a case of the cold sweats, while keeping them awake at night for the foreseeable future.”
The dollar was poised to extend a selloff that saw it slip on six of the past seven trading days as investors look to the Federal Reserve to add further stimulus in an effort to stave off the fallout from the epidemic. Treasury yields fell to all-time lows last week, with the 10-year yield dropping as far as 0.66%, as investors piled into havens.
Oil majors may also come under pressure. Exxon Mobil Corp. slid 5% on Friday, while Chevron Corp. dropped 3.3%. Saudi Aramco shares dropped as much as 9.3% on Sunday, trading below their IPO level for the first time.
In Europe, investors will brace for declines in Italy after the government sought to lock down the north of the country to contain the coronavirus. Northern Italy has been the epicenter of the outbreak in Europe with almost 6,000 cases.
“There are signs of stress in almost every corner of financial markets,” a team led by Guy Stear, head of fixed-income research at Societ Generale SA, wrote in a report. “Nobody knows how the Covid-19 situation will evolve, but what is obvious is that it is a significant growth shock and the longer it sticks around, the risks of a full-blown crisis will grow.”
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