Debt-ridden Greece, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund are engaged in a dangerous dance that will end up with the IMF bailing Greece out, says Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian.
“The IMF will come in, but it’s going to be a bumpy process,” he says.
“There is no immediate solution. Don’t underestimate the game of chicken between Greece, the EU and the IMF,” he told Bloomberg.
Greece’s budget deficit totaled 12.7 percent of GDP last year, well above the euro zone’s limit of 3 percent. And its government debt is likely to exceed 120 percent of GDP this year.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has said he will turn to the IMF if the EU can’t help.
And that’s what El-Erian thinks will transpire.
“Europe cannot come up with the financing that Greece needs, and Europe cannot impose conditionality on Greece,” he said.
“We have seen the movie over and over again where a country runs into a fiscal issue. The key thing for investors is to not to rush in on the first evidence of anything, but to wait.”
Investor extraordinaire Jim Rogers thinks that investors waiting on the euro will be waiting for a long time.
"The euro will probably break up in the next 15 to 20 years," he told CNBC. "We've had currency unions in history. They didn't survive, and this one won't survive either."
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