While many experts believe that stronger economic growth and anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase will push bond yields higher, Steven Major, global head of fixed income research at HSBC, doesn't see it that way.
For one thing, more robust economic data and forecasts of Fed rate hikes already have been baked into bond prices, he writes in the
Financial Times.
"Raising official short-term rates will only mean higher yields if the market is not expecting it," Major says.
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"What former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan labeled a 'conundrum' in 2005 was the puzzle of how there could be simultaneous increases in the Fed funds rate and declines in longer-term yields. Markets are now more comfortable with 'buy the rumor, sell the fact.'"
Meanwhile, rising bond prices dampen the economy, Major says. "Companies will not be keen to invest or employ new staff unless the expected returns are higher than offered in the bond market," he writes.
"Banks will not take the risk of lending if returns adjusted for risk are better in bonds or cash."
The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.59 percent late Wednesday, down from 3.04 percent Dec. 31.
Legendary investor Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, doesn't share Major's enthusiasm for bonds.
"I don’t think there is a good long-term fixed income investment," he told
Reuters Insider. "If you had to buy anything, I suppose you'd buy TIPS [Treasury-Inflation Protected Securities], but the yield there is terrible. I would stay away from long-term fixed-dollar investments."
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