President Joe Biden’s policies have put the future of the U.S. in jeopardy, warns Leon Cooperman, CEO of hedge fund Omega Family Office, Yahoo Finance reports.
The U.S. will enter a recession in 2024 and stocks are headed for a bear market, Cooperman believes.
“I think the bulk of the market is coming down,” Cooperman says. “Earnings are up a bit, but if you take out the Sainted Seven, the market is down for the year.”
That is a reference to the Magnificent Seven stocks that have soared over the past decade: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Nvdia (NVDA), Meta Plaforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA).
“You see companies doing relatively well and not being rewarded, and I think it’s because of the macro environment,” Cooperman says.
A recession is around the corner as a “result of qualitative tightening, the price of oil, the strong dollar and Fed tightening,” he adds. An economic downturn will surely result in stocks falling and greater market volatility.
The S&P 500 fell 1.77% in August and 4.87% in September.
The U.S. deficit is at the heart of Cooperman’s apprehensions.
“I’m less worried about inflation than I’m worried about the fiscal position of the country,” the hedge fund manager says. “We’re borrowing from the future through extremely aggressive fiscal policies, which bear no relationship to what the country can afford.”
The $33.68 trillion national debt has ballooned not just because of Biden’s policies but also the actions of President Trump, Cooperman says.
“When Donald Trump was president, he was running a trillion-dollar deficit, and the economy was fully employed,” he says. “Biden has made it worse because of economic circumstances and two wars.”
The “guns or butters” decision Biden now faces—the tradeoff between spending on national defense versus domestic programs—will lead to more inflation, either way, Cooperman thinks—which will be “negative for stocks.”
The U.S. Treasury’s report for the fiscal year through Sept. 30, 2023 shows a $1.7 trillion deficit, the largest since the COVID era and up 23% from 2022. This is mainly due to a decline in tax revenues and higher Social Security and Medicare spending, plus significantly higher interest payments on the federal debt.
Further, Biden has asked Congress for $100 billion in new foreign aid and security spending, including $61 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel.
These wars will prove “very negative for fiscal policy,” Cooperman says.
Biden does not appear to be “in the mood” to correct these trillion-dollar imbalances, he adds.
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