Don't be fooled by the recent spate of good news in the housing market, says Keith Jurow, author of the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report newsletter.
The S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price index rose 5 percent in the 12 months through March, and new home sales climbed 6.8 percent in the 12 months through April.
But beneath the surface, things aren't so pretty,
Jurow writes on Advisor Perspectives. The Case-Shiller index growth rate has shrunk markedly from the 13 percent increase for 2013, he notes.
Despite historically low mortgage rates, "new home sales are still at onethird the level of the bubble years [2006-07, and] existing home sales have never come close to peak-year levels," Jurow points out. At the same time, data showing a decline in delinquent mortgages is misleading, he says.
"For nearly five years, I have shown why this housing recovery has never been anything but an illusion — a mirage that disappears on closer examination."
Jurow's advice for clients is to "sell the big three bank stocks before they are forced to mark down the value of their weak first- and second-lien mortgage portfolios, sell your mortgage REITs before the true value of their mortgages becomes evident and unload your investment homes before the home price decline worsens."
Bottom line: "the housing collapse is ready to resume in earnest."
Meanwhile, billionaires from around the world are spending millions of dollars a piece on homes in major cities, including London, Vancouver, Miami, New York, Panama City, Istanbul and Sydney,
USA Today reports.
And that's wreaking havoc in these areas' housing markets, according to the McKinsey Global Institute.
The ultra-wealthy buyers are seeking out safe havens for their money, fleeing instability in their homelands, such as Latin America and Russia. This cross-border real estate buying totaled $25 billion last year, according to property management company Jones Lang LaSalle.
The trend has made home prices unaffordable for all but the wealthy, while 330 million urban households across the globe live in sub-standard housing, according to McKinsey.
"New demand is accused of hiking prices, as well as creating market access and affordability issues for local residents," Liam Bailey, head of research for real estate consulting firm Knight Frank, wrote in a report obtained by USA Today.
"The counterargument, that new investment flows lead to new supply in precisely the places where demand is highest, appears to be falling on deaf ears."
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