Savvy investors should be more worried about a potential second wave of coronavirus cases, a quantitative strategist at JPMorgan reportedly has warned.
Mixo Das, JPMorgan’s Asia equity and quant strategist, said in a note that “a ‘second wave’ infection is more dangerous for markets than a longer lockdown,” CNBC reported.
Weak data and grim economic expectations have led to calls for resuming global economic activity sooner rather than later.
However, Das notes that a “large ‘second wave’” of infections is his biggest downside risk for the market right now “as it calls into question the ‘one-off’ assumption (of macro damage) necessary for markets to recover here.”
He added the market may not even be pricing in such a scenario.
“Even in a pessimistic scenario, our Insurance analysts see only a small second wave.”
Meanwhile, some experts look to China for hints about what America should expect.
The world's biggest economy won't be open for business by Easter, as U.S. President Donald Trump had hoped, but the second biggest economy may come close. How China fares offers a guide to other countries when their coronavirus lockdowns lift, Reuters explained.
Investors seem optimistic about China's recovery, with fund inflows hitting a 5-year peak late last month. But the risk of a second wave of infections is underscored by China reintroducing some curbs on movement. Any new outbreak would crush confidence and prolong lockdowns elsewhere too.
And the scale of recovery is an open question as global demand for goods languishes. With data coming out with a lag, investors will focus on indicators such as coal consumption (rising, but depressed), cargo handling (about 90% of pre-virus levels in Shanghai last week), gambling (collapsed) and box office takings (negligible). Next week may bring more clarity.
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