Tags: John Tamny | Economy | GDP | Growth

Forbes' John Tamny: Don't Believe the GDP Number, Economy's Stronger Than You Think

Tuesday, 05 May 2015 10:00 AM EDT

GDP data do a woeful job of measuring the economy, and the weak 0.2 percent growth number for the first quarter is very misleading, says John Tamny, political economy editor at Forbes.

"Lost on the left and right who live and die based on the fraud that is GDP is the more realistic truth that the number was created by economists (this is historical fact) to justify more government involvement in the economy, including more spending," he writes.

"That’s why the number often reads as poor even when the economy-sapping burden that is government is in relative retreat."

So what's the significance of last Wednesday's report for the first quarter?

It "revealed bullish government retreat from the economy, and that’s great for growth. Too bad no one noticed," Tamny states. Lower government spending means lower GDP.

"GDP is upside down, as will be the commentary of politicians, economists and pundits so long as they pay mind to such a worthless number," he says.

Meanwhile, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, international business editor of The (London) Daily Telegraph, says talk of the U.S. economy's collapse is overdone. It's not that he denies the magnitude of the problem.

"The U.S. economy has suddenly stalled. A blizzard of shockingly weak figures raise the awful possibility that America's six-year growth cycle since the Great Recession has already rolled over, with unsettling implications for the world," he writes.

Referring to former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers' warning of secular stagnation, Evans-Pritchard, says, "we should not ignore his warnings lightly. Yet for once I am an optimist, clinging to the belief that the U.S. will recover from the strange air pocket of early 2015."

And what fuels his optimism?
  • "Fiscal headwinds have abated.
  • "Money supply is igniting.
  • "Commercial and industrial loans are growing even faster.
  • "The New York Fed says the post-Lehman purge of household debt has 'largely run its course.'
  • "The overhang of unsold houses on the market has essentially been cleared, and hot spots are booming."

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Economy
GDP data do a woeful job of measuring the economy, and the weak 0.2 percent growth number for the first quarter is very misleading, says John Tamny, political economy editor at Forbes.
John Tamny, Economy, GDP, Growth
328
2015-00-05
Tuesday, 05 May 2015 10:00 AM
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