Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel says investor money continues to flow into the stock market amid the seemingly endless series of record highs as the current bull market continues to charge even higher.
“There is no threat, I think, to this bull market, certainly as you can see on the near term,” he told CNBC.
“This is an upward trending market. You can’t go against it in this short run,” Siegel said.
What’s needed to “spark a really big rally” is a trade deal between the U.S. and China, he said.
U.S. negotiators head to China on Tuesday to try to hammer out details to end the two countries’ trade war, including the shape of an enforcement mechanism, the success or failure of which could set the trajectory of ties for years to come, Reuters reported.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will travel to Beijing for talks beginning on April 30, followed by a visit by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to Washington for more discussions starting on May 8.
Both sides have cited progress on issues including intellectual property and forced technology transfer to help end a conflict marked by tit-for-tat tariffs that have cost the world’s two largest economies billions of dollars, disrupted supply chains and rattled financial markets.
Those issues are still on the table, according to the White House, but U.S. officials say privately that an enforcement mechanism for a deal and timelines for lifting tariffs are sticking points.
Agreeing to a way to enforce a deal is one thing. Ensuring it holds up under ties strained by growing mistrust and geopolitical tensions will be another, say watchers of the relationship.
“An effective enforcement mechanism will define the deal,” Tim Stratford, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham), told Reuters.
“The deal doesn’t need to revamp China’s economy. But it does need to provide a new methodology for dealing with our differences,” said Stratford, a lawyer and former assistant U.S. Trade Representative who has worked in China for more than three decades.
“This is incredibly high stakes. We have a particular window of opportunity, and a lot in the future of U.S.-China relations rests on this,” he said.
Meanwhile, Fed officials are scheduled to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to assess the economy and deliberate on the future course of monetary policy. The U.S. central bank in March dropped forecasts for any interest rate increases this year, halting a three-year policy tightening campaign. The Fed raised borrowing costs four times in 2018.
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