In the UK we saw the conservatives, completely unexpected, winning an absolute majority in the general elections, which will have consequences over the short to median term for the European Union cause.
The planned EU in/out referendum in 2017 will rise uncertainties for the UK as well as for the EU during the coming two years.
It’s interesting to see Moody’s already warning: “…if the Conservative Party's plan to hold a referendum on European Union membership results in the UK's exit (BREXIT) this could have consequences for the whole economy, including potentially for the sovereign rating, if the UK was unable to broadly replicate the benefits of membership…”
Investors should be aware the coming negotiations between the UK and the EU could be more accident-prone than the current negotiations between Greece and the eurozone. And that says something!
Please keep in mind David Cameron, who is in fact pro-Europe, pledged during his election campaign the UK is going to control under its own rules the intra-EU migration, which is a EU “no-go (!)”, and the UK will do all what it can to stop providing benefits to the so-called “benefit tourists” from other EU member states, mostly coming from the eastern EU countries, and wants a repatriation of some EU powers to the UK parliament, which will probably require changes in the European treaties.
All this brings us for a moment to Greece that has to pay 750 million euros or about $738 million to
the IMF, and where over the weekend Greece Finance Minister of Finance Varoufakis said he expects Greece GDP to grow now by only 0.1 percent in 2015 and 2.0 percent in 2016, when only 6 days ago he expected GDP to grow by “a bit” more than 1.0 percent in 2015.
Investors could do well to remember, and this is important, one of the very few remedies for Greece to come out of its permanent bankruptcy situation is to bring down the nominal interests on its Treasury bills and bonds to “below” the nominal GDP growth rate, which now stands at 0.1 percent, which is practically an impossible task. To put this in context, the latest 13-weeks and 26-weeks
Treasury bill issuance on May 6th yielded respectively 2.70 and 2.97 percent.
Besides all that in the U.S. we got on Friday decent data of the Employment Statistics where nonfarm payroll employment rose by 223,000 in April, after edging up a disappointing +85,000, which was revised down from +126,000 initially, in March.
In April, professional and business services (+62,000), education and health care services (+61,000), and construction (+45,000) added jobs.
Employment in mining, which includes oil and gas extraction, fell by -15,000 over the month. Average hourly earnings of all private sector employees rose by 3 cents in April. Over the year,
hourly earnings were up 2.2 percent. In April, average weekly hours held at 34.5 hours. All by all, a good number.
We could say if employment continues to grow more or less at present pace, a first Fed rate hike in the autumn becomes by the day more likely.
Related to this, the newest survey of the CNBC Global CFO Council, a group of chief financial officers (CFO), whose firms control about $1 trillion in assets together, reveals 17 percent of the CFOs expect a first Fed rate hike in Q3 2015 while 44 percent expect it in Q4 of 2015.
Also interesting is that 44 percent expect the U.S. and Canada to perform economically better, and best globally, over the next 6 months while 28 percent expect China to perform better and only 11 percent expect
Western Europe to perform better
Finally,
the survey also reveals 60 percent of the consulted chief financial officers think a significant stock market correction in the U.S. is “somewhat likely in the next three months.”
Yes, investors should be aware uncertainties are bound to rise over the coming months and that by itself could cause sudden spikes in volatility, which could provoke, liquidity problems, which in turn, if that occurs, will cause havoc in the markets.
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