Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian warns of a 75% chance of inflation remaining elevated in the 3%-4% range—or surging higher.

The economist believes there is a 50% probability inflation will remain sticky, and a 25% chance it will head back up later this year into 2024, as he writes in a Project Syndicate editorial.

As the markets await the January consumer price index data Tuesday, El-Erian says he foresees only a 25% outlook for a soft landing, whereby the U.S. economy avoids a recession, which some economists optimistically call “immaculate disinflation.”

While El-Erian gives Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell credit for recently saying his fight against inflation is far from over, El-Erian criticizes the Fed for initially dismissing inflation as merely transitory.

The miscalculation has “inflicted unnecessary pain on millions of American households—particularly the most vulnerable segments of the population,” El-Erian says.

That mistake cannot be made again, he says: “Whatever happens, the worst thing we can do is fall back into complacency. Simplistic economic narratives…that entice those looking for shortcuts, often mislead much more than enlighten.”

Already, a key indicator in the supply chain is pointing to higher inflation, CNBC reports. Storage in warehouses is up nearly 11% from a year ago, primarily due to a lack of space.

Simply put, consumer demand is down, and warehouses are getting crowded.

These costs are going to be passed only to American consumers, likely in the second and third quarters, says Paul Brashier, vice president at ITS Logistics.

“Late fees and warehouse fees, still at historic highs, are passed onto the consumer, which is why we are not seeing product (prices) fall as much as they should,” Brashier says.