Average tax refunds are running higher in 2026, with early IRS data showing increases in refund size, total payouts, and the share of filers receiving refunds.
The Tax Foundation said it's tracking three key indicators during the filing season: average refund size, total refunds issued, and the number of refunds distributed.
As of March 20, the average refund stood at $3,571, up from $3,221 at the same point in 2025 — an increase of about $350, or 10.9%.
Total refunds issued have also increased, reaching $202.6 billion compared with $179.5 billion during the same period last year, a difference of nearly $23 billion.
The IRS has issued 56.7 million refunds in 2026, compared with 55.7 million at the same point in 2025, with 71.9% of filed returns receiving refunds.
The IRS issued more than 104 million refunds in 2024 and 103.8 million in 2025, with two-thirds of filers receiving refunds in each year.
The Tax Foundation said the share of taxpayers receiving refunds is likely to increase in 2026 as the filing season continues.
The increase in refund size is tied in part to provisions in the Republican-sponsored One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included deductions for tips, overtime, auto loan interest, and seniors.
Because the IRS did not update withholding tables to reflect those 2025 tax changes, some taxpayers overpaid during the year and are receiving larger refunds.
The group noted that early filing season data can fluctuate as more returns are processed and refunds tied to credits such as the earned income tax credit are released after mid-February.
CNBC reported that the White House previously said the average taxpayer could receive an additional $1,000 or more from the tax changes, based on early estimates.
Tax professionals say the increase in refunds is noticeable.
"We are seeing an uptick in refunds," said Tom O'Saben, director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals.
"I don't know that it's substantial, but one person's substantial is another person's pittance," he said.
Jim Mishler ✉
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