U.S. home owners are expected to spend less on home improvement and repairs over the next year, according to the Leading Indicator for Remodeling Activity devised by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

Annual gains in homeowner expenditures for improvements and repairs are projected to shrink from 6.3% in the current quarter to just 0.4% by the second quarter of 2020.

Spending is forecast to stagnate at the current annual level of about $320 billion. Earlier projections from the Harvard center had estimated the homeowner improvement and repair market would grow to $353 billion in 2019.

Despite falling mortgage interest rates, Chris Herbert, managing director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies says, “slower gains in permitting for improvement projects will put the brakes on remodeling growth over the coming year.”

The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity is next expected to be released on October 17, 2019.