Investment guru Jeffrey Gundlach recently predicted that President Donald Trump could abandon his re-election bid if the economy plunges into a recession.
“If the economy goes into recession and he can’t pullout by removing the tariffs, there’s very little for him to run on,” Gundlach, the DoubleLine Capital co-founder and CEO, told Fox Business Network this week.
Gundlach, known on Wall Street as the Bond King, added the president’s second term will be determined by the success of the U.S. economy.
Trump launched his 2020 re-election campaign Tuesday night in Orlando. The president touted the economy under his administration as “envy of the world.”
“Our country is soaring to incredible new heights," Trump said. "Our economy is the envy of the world, perhaps the greatest economy we've had in the history of our country, and as long as you keep this team in place -- we have a tremendous way to go -- our future has never, ever looked brighter or sharper.”
Gundlach said, as long as the economy doesn’t falter, Trump will win re-election. But he warns, there’s a chance Trump might pull out of the presidential race.
“Lyndon Johnson ran for a while too and then pulled out because of the war problems,” Gundlach said.
Gundlach last week said the odds of the United States sliding into a recession in the next six months have risen to 40-45% and the odds were 65% within the next year.
Gundlach, who oversees more than $130 billion in assets under management, said the yield curve and the New York Fed recession probability showed a rising chance of recession, Reuters reported.
“Several indicators suggest a recession could take place in one year,” Gundlach said on an investor website, adding consumer indicators point to “the front edge of a recession.”
Earlier this year, he said a recession was not on the horizon, but the U.S.-China trade war and the weak momentum of the global economy have raised red flags for him.
To be sure, .American manufacturing activity barely grew in early June and the service sector cooled, signs that Trump’s trade war with China could be weighing on the economy.
Other economic data released on Friday showed a rise in home resales during May, suggesting the Federal Reserve was seeing dividends from its efforts to avert a recession by keeping interest rates low, Reuters reported.
While many indicators still point to a healthy economy, Fed policymakers are increasingly concerned that the 10-year economic expansion could be in danger.
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