Tags: gundlach | fed | cheerleading | inflation

Gundlach: Fed Is Cheerleading Inflation Higher

Gundlach: Fed Is Cheerleading Inflation Higher
(AP)

By    |   Wednesday, 11 December 2019 07:23 PM EST

Billionaire investment guru Jeffrey Gundlach predicts that long-term Treasury yields will jump in the coming year because the Federal Reserve’s tactics will only push inflation higher.

“I can’t emphasize enough that October statement by Powell, where he said ‘We’re not even considering raising interest rates unless we see a substantial and persistent rise in inflation,’” the DoubleLine Capital founder recently told CNBC.

’“When you hear that, that the Fed is cheerleading inflation higher ... what that says is that the path of least resistance for the 10-year is higher until such time as the Fed manipulates it lower,” said Gundlach, who oversees around $147 billion of assets under management.

Gundlach spoke to CNBC just hours after he predicted in a podcast that rhe U.S. dollar’s next big move will be lower, which could lead to a significant fall in U.S. bond prices and a slew of downgrades, Reuters reported.

Gundlach said his firm’s model shows consumer prices rising to 2.5% on an annualized basis within the next few months. Asked how high the rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note could climb amid rising prices, Gundlach said that key technical resistance around 2.05% could offer the note’s first barrier to further devaluation, CNBC explained, adding that bond prices fall as yields rise.

“I think if we get economic weakness along the way, which I’m not expecting in the near term, you could see a move back up to 3.25% on the 10-year,” he added. “I think that would get the Fed back into quantitative easing.”

In the podcast, he predicted only a 35% chance of a U.S. recession in 2020, but believes that when a downturn does hit, the weaker dollar will drive foreign investors out of U.S. corporate debt.

Low yields globally have pushed investors into riskier assets and led to the ballooning of BBB-rated credit, the lowest possible investment-grade rating. The decline in quality of U.S. credit poses the biggest risk to bond investors today, said Gundlach.

Gundlach said he expects the Treasury yield curve to steepen in the coming year, with the two-year yield anchored by a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts. He does not expect further rate cuts in the first half of 2020.

A 2020 electoral victory for U.S. President Donald Trump is DoubleLine’s base case scenario, said Gundlach, in part because of the weakness of the Democratic party’s candidates for office.

© 2026 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.


StreetTalk
Billionaire investment guru Jeffrey Gundlach predicts that long-term Treasury yields will jump in the coming year because the Federal Reserve’s tactics will only push inflation higher.
gundlach, fed, cheerleading, inflation
399
2019-23-11
Wednesday, 11 December 2019 07:23 PM
Newsmax Media, Inc.

Sign up for Newsmax’s Daily Newsletter

Receive breaking news and original analysis - sent right to your inbox.

(Optional for Local News)
Privacy: We never share your email address.
Join the Newsmax Community
Read and Post Comments
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
 
Get Newsmax Text Alerts
TOP

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved
NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved