Last Thursday we got, especially for long-term investors who try to take into account real risks, an interesting leak of a strictly confidential IMF Office Memorandum on Greece
informed the country did fall back into recession after 2 quarters of negative growth.

Besides that, and probably much more important, the IMF staff memorandum states: “… it can be said that, starting in June, and then in July and August, 11 billion euros ($12.5 billion) are coming due and there will be no possibility for the Greek authorities to repay the whole amount unless an agreement is reached with their international partners … On the Fund side, it was made clear that no disbursement will be made until a full staff-level agreement on a comprehensive review is reached … under the constraints that numbers needs to add up in terms of financing and sustainability. The Managing Director underscored that the Fund cannot complete a “quick and dirty” review, and that the staff has to play by the rules and not obscure the Fund’s mandate.”

You don’t have to be a banker to see formal bankruptcy for Greece is approaching quickly while the IMF’s support for Greece is close to the point of breaking down, which in case this occurs, finally could open Greece’s Pandora box that will spread “contagion,” no doubt about that.

The only thing we don’t know how deep and widespread that contagion effect could reach. Anyway, as an investor I wouldn’t try to play “Grecian roulette” for all the obvious reasons.

In the meantime, and also in the relation to the aforementioned Memorandum on Greece, the Financial Times reported: “… one board member (IMF) raised the possibility of presenting a “take it or leave it proposal” to Greece. However, IMF staff said they still did not have enough data from Greek authorities to put together such a plan.”

One could seriously ask him/herself how long that kicking the can down the road silly game can still go on?

That said, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who is FOMC voter this year and known as a real dove,  speaking in Sweden said: “…I think the outlook for growth in economic activity and the labor market is good. However, inflation is too low … my forecast is for inflation to rise at a very gradual pace, reaching our 2 percent objective only in 2018 … I think the FOMC should refrain from raising the federal funds rate until there is much greater confidence that inflation one or two years ahead will be at our 2 percent target. I see no compelling reason for us to be in a hurry to tighten financial conditions until then…”

It’s really interesting to see Mr. Evans' views coincides with the just released the “New York Fed (FRBNY) May 2015 Staff Forecast” that projects PCE inflation to reach 2 percent in 2017.

As for those that are watching hints of when the probable first Fed rate hike could occur, the FRBNY Staff Forecast expects real GDP growth to average just under 2.50 percent over the remainder of 2015 and 2016 while the downside risks to GDP remain the dollar appreciation, continued restraint on private spending and the pullback in energy sector investment.

On employment the Staff Forecast expects modestly above-potential growth and the later-stage expansion dynamics lead to a slow decline in unemployment rate to about 5 percent by the fourth quarter of 2016.

All this brings us to the release on Wednesday of the FOMC minutes of the meeting of 28-29 April, which could be interesting especially after the Fed, during its March meeting, effectively lowered the NAIRU rate (nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment) to 5 percent.

Anyway, there is no doubt in my mind the next move for the Fed will be higher rates, while the ECB likely cannot consider raising rates for at least several years.

That situation by itself, coupled to another Greek drama episode (hopefully not), is to me convincing enough not to change my expectations for a stronger dollar over the “median” term.