Tags: goldman | market | early | openers

Goldman: Market Is Rewarding Early Reopeners

Goldman: Market Is Rewarding Early Reopeners
(Edward Olive/Dreamstime)

By    |   Wednesday, 27 May 2020 09:04 AM EDT

A recent study from Goldman Sachs reportedly concludes that the soaring stock market is rewarding areas that have re-opened their economies faster than others, according to a new analysis from Goldman Sachs.

“Despite opening much faster than some other countries, we find little evidence that ‘early openers’ have – so far – seen demonstrably-higher virus incidence,” CNBC quoted Goldman Sachs’ Ian Tomb as saying, adding that the market is now beginning to reward countries that that are quickly re-opening.

“With coronavirus concerns moderating, limited evidence so far that opening up has triggered fresh medical concerns, and the potential negative effects of lockdowns continuing to accrue, markets have tentatively started to take a more positive view of reopening,” the firm said.

This represents a shift in market sentiment, Goldman said, since opening up was previously associated with lower returns and tighter financial conditions.

The analysis is based on 100 different financial indicators across 33 countries, CNBC explained.

However, economic prospects for the developed world this year have darkened again in the past month, with a V-shaped sharp recovery seen as unlikely, a poll by Reuters showed.

"The long-term consequences of this lockdown are not going away anytime soon and we aren't going to have the perfect economy," said DailyFx currency strategist Ilya Spivak told Reuters.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 37.9% from its March 23 low due to central bank and government stimulus at a time when the U.S. economy is seeing its biggest job losses since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It closed 11.7% below its Feb. 19 record high.

On Monday, California, which has had one of the country's most restrictive shutdowns, said it would allow retail businesses to offer in-store shopping and places of worship to reopen.

On top of vaccine-related news, Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citi Personal Wealth Management, pointed to better-than-expected home sales data and comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

"When you add the news all together everyone's getting a boost," Snyder told Reuters.

Recent data showed U.S. consumer confidence nudged up in May, adding to hopes that the worst of the economic impact of the shutdown is in the past.

A comment from Dimon suggesting that the bank may not need to increase its reserves in the second half of the year was a boost for the financial sector as well as the broader market, according to Citi's Snyder.

While macroeconomic data was pointing at a deep recession, Citi's Snyder was focused on the recovery. But he questioned how much further the market would rise with the U.S. presidential election in November and simmering U.S.-China tensions.

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StreetTalk
A recent study from Goldman Sachs reportedly concludes that the soaring stock market is rewarding areas that have re-opened their economies faster than others, according to a new analysis from Goldman Sachs.
goldman, market, early, openers
441
2020-04-27
Wednesday, 27 May 2020 09:04 AM
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