Goldman Sachs economists reportedly have hiked their third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 35% from 30% as consumers continued to spend above their predictions despite a global pandemic.
Even with reduce unemployment benefits, consumers continued to spend in late summer, possibly because of second quarter savings, CNBC explained.
Goldman said its tracking forecast is now 14 percentage points ahead of the Wall Street consensus, and it sees the consumer contributing 12 points of that gap. Goldman's call is also far higher than the median of roughly 20% seen by forecasters in a Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank survey in mid-August.
“Following the sharp rise in spending in late spring and early summer, the virus resurgence and the surprise fiscal tightening threatened a reversal. But spending instead rose strongly in July, and four high-frequency measures indicate a further 1-2% increase in real spending in August,” the economists wrote.
Though gross domestic product in the third quarter remains on track to rebound at an annualized rate of as high as 35% after sinking at a historic 31.7% pace in the April-June quarter, the slowing labor market will hurt fourth-quarter GDP.
“Looking beyond this quarter, we remain upbeat on growth. Market participants appear to have expected a higher economic price from the virus resurgence and the fiscal fizzle, and the sequential strength in the data in Q3 also bodes well for Q4 and beyond. We also continue to expect a vaccine early next year, and much of the remaining output gap is concentrated in virus-sensitive sectors,” the economists noted.
Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius noted that even challenged service sector businesses "are adapting to the pandemic via low-cost mitigation measures," a fact that may have contributed to some signs of progress for the beleaguered restaurant industry.
Meanwhile, people flocked to stores - and back to restaurants - over Labor Day weekend in the United States, setting post-pandemic highs for retail foot traffic and seated dining but also posing a puzzle, Reuters explained.
The upturn may be a sign that consumer confidence is returning alongside a fall in new coronavirus infections. Or it could be a one-time bright spot in a slow economic recovery that remains challenged by massive joblessness and a persistent health crisis, one many fear will intensify in coming weeks.
Broad measures of the recovery ticked higher over the last week, gross domestic product estimates kept by the Atlanta and New York Federal Reserve banks have been increasing since mid-summer, and high frequency indicators from private data services have shown steady if sometimes slow progress.
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