HSBC on Friday raised its 2025 average gold price forecast by $100 to $3,455 per ounce, citing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a weakening U.S. dollar, and projected prices could reach $5,000 in 2026.

"Gold rally likely sustained through 1H'26 by geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty and rising public debt," the bank said in a note.

Unlike past rallies, HSBC believes many of the new entrants to the gold market are likely to remain even after the rally subsides — not necessarily for price gains, but for gold's role as a diversifier and safe-haven asset.

While the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is expected to support gold prices, its positive impact tends to fade as the cycle wanes, the bank noted.

Gold prices scaled another record high at $4,378.69 on Friday and was headed for its biggest weekly gain since December 2008, as geopolitical and economic uncertainty along with growing U.S. rate cut bets drove investors to the safe-haven metal.

ANZ, meanwhile, on Thursday forecast gold will peak near $4,600 per ounce by June 2026, followed by a gradual decline in the second half as the Fed concludes its easing cycle and clarity emerges on U.S. economic growth and trade tariff policies.