The global auto industry is poised for its first sustained production drop since the financial crisis, according to RBC Capital Markets.

Worldwide light-vehicle output fell 2.9 percent in the third quarter and probably will decline about 4 percent in the fourth quarter, analyst Joe Spak wrote in a report Wednesday. This will be the first back-to-back industrywide drop since 2009, he said.

Automakers probably will produce about 94.6 million vehicles this year, down 0.6 percent from 2017, according to IHS Automotive and RBC’s estimates. The analysts are projecting output will drop again by 0.4 percent in 2019, with tempered growth resuming in the following years.