The U.S. unemployment rate will rise swiftly and dramatically as the coronavirus brings the American economy to a stop, former top White House economic adviser Gary Cohn said Thursday.
“I believe that we are going to have massive unemployment very very quickly,” Cohn told CNBC.
“I hope all of our predictions are wrong but you cannot work today. Even if you want to go out and work, you’re not allowed to work,” said Cohn.
“If you’re an Uber drive and you’re out there trying to pick up fares, there’s no fare to pick up. In essence, you’re de facto unemployed. Not because you want to be unemployed, you’re unemployed because there’s no revenue opportunity for you.”
Meanwhile, the coronavirus outbreak has forced millions of Americans to hunker down in their homes, with state and local governments escalating "social distancing" policies, closing schools, bars, restaurants and theaters in an attempt to contain the virus, Reuters explained.
The death toll in the United States from the COVID-19 illness caused by the coronavirus has topped 100 and more than 9,000 people are infected, according to a Reuters tally. Nearly 9,000 people have died across the globe and almost 219,000 have contracted the disease.
Health experts, however, say the figures are much higher given that testing is not readily available in many countries, including the United States. The virus has crippled the transportation, leisure and hospitality industries, as well as the manufacturing sector. Economists are anticipating a surge in job cuts and are predicting recession by the second quarter.
The Federal Reserve aggressively cut interest rates to near zero on Sunday, and pledged hundreds of billions of dollars in asset purchases and to backstop foreign authorities with the offer of cheap dollar financing. The Trump administration is pushing for a $1 trillion stimulus package.
Economists say the upcoming economic downturn is most likely to assume a U-shape. JPMorgan on Wednesday estimated that first- quarter gross domestic product would contract at a 4.0% annualized rate followed by an even steeper 14.0% decline in the second quarter. It forecast the economy contracting 1.8% this year and the unemployment rate rising to 5.3%.
Material from Reuters and the Associated Press has been used in this report.
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