By many economists’ standards, the Federal Reserve has been astoundingly nimble at deflating financial bubbles, Bloomberg reports. So agile has the Fed been, it is raising hopes the central bank might be able to avert a recession in the U.S. and achieve a soft landing.
Cryptocurrencies, housing prices and technology stocks—each of these major U.S. markets are coming down.
The crypto market, at its peak, $3 trillion, is now valued at just $1 trillion. Popular technology stocks have been halved. Housing prices, under the weight of mortgages doubling in the past year, are falling for the first time in 10 years.
Yet, the financial system is not upending, as it did in the Great Recession of 2008 and the dot-com crash of 2001, and the mild recessions that followed.
“It’s astonishing,” says Harvard University Professor Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor from 2012 to 2014. “If you told any one of us a year ago, ‘We’re going to have a bunch of 75 basis-point hikes,’ you’d have said, ‘Are you nuts? You’re going to blow up the financial system.’”
Bloomberg says the air needed to come out of the financial system’s tires a bit, and that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy’s success—thus far—might extend to the delicate balance it is taking towards inflation and recession.
The U.S. economy, certainly, is in a fairly strong position, which may be one of the reasons why some economists are hopeful a recession may be prevented: “This housing downturn is different from the 2008 crash,” says Bloomberg U.S. Chief Economist Anna Wong and colleague Eliza Winger, in a note. That’s because borrowers’ mortgage credit is far higher than it was 15 years ago.
As far as cryptocurrency implosions are concerned, such as the $3.1 billion bankruptcy of FTX, the fallout is mostly being contained within the walls of cryptos, which trade primarily only with one another, Bloomberg says.
The trillions of dollars of market capitalization that have been wiped out from technology stocks has pained institutional and individual investors alike. However, consider that stocks in the dot-com crash plummeted by 80% nearly overnight.
The 30% Nasdaq tech stock downturn is relatively less and has occurred gradually over the past year, as Fed interest rates have risen.
While economists admit that any type of major financial disruption could put the Fed and the markets off balance, as the Princeton University professor says, he’s “reasonably optimistic” a financial markets breakdown and a recession can be avoided.
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