Many Americans have been dismayed to see their jobs replaced by computers during the past 25 years. So could the same thing happen to Federal Reserve policymakers during the next quarter century?
Yes, says Vivek Ranadive, founder and CEO of Tibco Software. Wall Street will ultimately look like Silicon Valley, and financial markets will be controlled by computer programs, he told
CNBC.
That will leave little need for banks. The bank of the future "will be completely virtual," Ranadive noted. "It will be completely driven by big data and math."
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As for the central bank, "the Federal Reserve needs to come into the 21st century and the Federal Reserve of the future will be a computer program," he argued.
"I fully expect that the Fed will be displaced by a closed-loop computer program where you will constantly be making measurements and making adjustments based on what you're experiencing.
"Wall Street should certainly look at Silicon Valley as a disruptor, as a potential threat," Ranadive added. "Every industry has the danger of getting Amazon'd, where the use of technology dramatically changes the value proposition."
As for the present day Fed, "there is a fundamental question that needs to be answered," Stanford University economist
John Taylor wrote in The Wall Street Journal. "Will the central bank continue its highly interventionist and discretionary monetary policies, or will it move to a more rules-based approach?"
Taylor cites a study from University of Houston economist David Papell as to what happens when the central bank utilizes rules-based policies.
"The periods when it did — such as in much of the 1980s and '90s — coincided with good economic performance: price stability, steady employment and output growth," noted Taylor, Treasury undersecretary for international affairs during the George W. Bush administration.
"From 2003 to 2005, however, the Fed kept interest rates lower than such a rules-based approach would imply. This contributed mightily to the housing bubble and the risk-taking search for yield," he added.
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