A recent CNBC survey of 11 forecasters discovered first-quarter GDP estimates averaging just 1.2%, down nearly a point from the fourth quarter.
First-quarter forecasts range from a low of 0.4% from UBS to a high of 2% for Action Economics, CNBC explained.
Economists see a bounce back to 2% growth in the second quarter, depending on the severity of the virus both in China and in other countries.
However, there’s concern that equity markets are not taking the threat as seriously as the bond market, CNBC explained.
“Rate markets are sending warning signs, creating renewed disconnect between rate and equity markets,” JPMorgan said in a report. “What we find complacent is the idea among some market participants that Chinese economic weakness will have limited repercussions for the rest of the world.”
Deutsche Bank shaved 0.3 percentage point off its first-quarter number due to the coronavirus effects and 0.4 percentage point because of Boeing. “Most of the lost output is expected to be recouped in the back half of the year,” the bank wrote in its recent report.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicts first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.7%, the Atlanta Fed said Friday.
However, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York isn’t as optimistic. The New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast fell to 1.5% for first quarter of 2020 from 1.7%.
The U.S. economy grew at a moderate 2.1% rate in the final three months of 2019, capping a year when growth slowed significantly due to a weaker global economy and trade war uncertainties.
The Commerce Department reported last week that the fourth quarter increase in the gross domestic product, the economy’s total output of goods and services, matched the 2.1% gain of the third quarter. Both quarters were well below the 3.1% surge seen in the first quarter.
Meanwhile, a top U.S. central banker on Monday said that while China's economy will likely slow for at least a couple of quarters due to the coronavirus epidemic, the impact on the U.S. economy has been limited.
"We haven't seen much yet... the most important impact would be through confidence, and we haven't seen that yet either," San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly told reporters in a telephoned question and answer session from Dublin, Ireland, Reuters reported.
For his part, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said Monday that it is going to take some time before the full impact of the coronavirus outbreak will be known on the U.S. economy, or even if the virus will peak or if it will spread,
"There are companies that are going back to work in China as we speak," Navarro told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo. "At the White House, we've got a crack task force working day and night on this issue, to protect Americans."
He added that in addition to working on fighting the coronavirus issue, the U.S. will also need to examine its foreign dependence on medical equipment, supplies, and pharmaceuticals needed not only to treat the new deadly Chinese outbreak but also other issues in the United States.
"What we need to do is think about how we can get our pharmaceutical production back onshore and cheap," said Navarro.
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