Confidence among America’s top executives rebounded sharply in the first quarter of 2026, signaling renewed optimism about the economy even as concerns about artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and tariffs linger.

The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence, conducted in collaboration with The Business Council, jumped 11 points to 59 in the first quarter, up from 48 at the end of 2025.

A reading above 50 indicates more positive than negative responses. The survey of 142 CEOs was conducted between Feb. 3 and Feb. 16.

“CEO Confidence improved significantly in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting restored optimism among leaders of large firms,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.

The economist noted that executives’ views of current financial conditions turned moderately positive compared with six months ago, while expectations for the months ahead shifted from slight pessimism late last year to moderate optimism.

Importantly, CEOs’ expectations for their own industries advanced from cautious to what Peterson described as “solid confidence.”

Assessments of present conditions within their industries also moved decisively into positive territory.

Investments Up, Hiring Steady

The rebound in sentiment is translating into stronger investment plans.

“Along with the rebound in confidence, businesses’ investment continued to firm up in Q1, with more than a third of CEOs expecting to revise capital spending plans upwards in the next 12 months,” said Roger W. Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council and chair emeritus of The Conference Board.

Thirty-five percent of CEOs now expect to increase capital expenditures, up sharply from 22% in the prior quarter, while only 11% anticipate cutting spending.

At the same time, companies are cautious about hiring.

Ferguson described a “low-hire, low-fire” environment: 31% of CEOs expect to expand their workforce, slightly down from last quarter, while 27% anticipate reductions. The largest share — 41% — foresee no change.

Wage growth plans were largely steady, with most executives guiding toward 1% to 3% increases, though a small uptick was seen in firms planning raises above 5%.

Hiring qualified workers was generally reported as easier, though more CEOs cited acute staffing challenges in certain roles.

AI & Technology Top Risks

Even as confidence rebounds, CEOs flagged significant risks.

Artificial intelligence and new technology risks climbed to the top of the list of industry concerns, narrowly surpassing geopolitical risks. Cyber threats also remained a key worry.

Ferguson said financial and economic risks have increased in prominence, while concerns related to trade, tariffs and supply chains have eased somewhat compared with prior quarters.

Still, tariffs continue to affect corporate cost structures. Seventy-one percent of CEOs reported higher costs as a result of tariff increases. On balance, 44% said they have passed or plan to pass those costs on to customers, while 27% said they absorbed the increases.

Despite those pressures, the broader outlook on trade appeared more measured than alarmist, suggesting businesses are adjusting rather than retrenching.

Bullish on Economy

Looking ahead six months, 43% of CEOs expect the economy to improve, up from 24% in the fourth quarter. Only 13% anticipate deterioration. Optimism about conditions within their own industries was even stronger, with 51% expecting improvement.

The findings suggest that while executives remain alert to technology disruption, geopolitical tensions and cost pressures, overall sentiment has turned constructive as inflation cools and economic conditions stabilize.

The next CEO Confidence survey is scheduled for release May 28.