Major stock indexes rose to record highs earlier this month, but sluggish corporate profits may put a damper on the market, writes
E.S. Browning of The Wall Street Journal.
With more than 90 percent of companies in the S&P 500 having reported first-quarter earnings, profits increased 2.1 percent from a year earlier, compared with an 8.5 percent advance in the fourth quarter.
While analysts currently predict a profit increase of 6 percent in the second quarter, 72 percent of companies that have issued guidance caution their earnings for the quarter could trail analysts' expectations.
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"People have been expecting better earnings forecasts, but I'm a little more concerned that earnings estimates are going to be ticking down," Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners, tells Browning.
Economic trends don't argue for strong earnings gains. China's economy is slowing, the eurozone's is barely growing and the U.S. economy is showing mixed signs.
Chinese GDP expanded 7.4 percent in the first quarter, down from 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The eurozone economy eked out growth of only 0.8 percent annualized in the first quarter. And in the United States, industrial production fell 0.6 percent in April.
Investor sentiment appears mixed now for stocks. "We've seen a lot of volatility, but not a lot of direction in the past few months. And that's what's become the norm," Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, tells
Bloomberg.
"We don't think we're near a major market top. Those are generally characterized by a lot of optimism and euphoria, and we don't think that's the case."
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