Tags: Boockvar | GDP | growth | ISM

Lindsey Group's Boockvar: 'All the Evidence Points to' 2.5 Percent Growth, Not 3 Percent

By    |   Thursday, 05 June 2014 02:20 PM EDT

GDP growth isn't all that it's cracked up to be, says Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group.

While the economy shrank 1 percent in the first quarter, many analysts expect GDP to expand at a 3 percent pace or higher for the remainder of the year.

But weak economic data released Wednesday helped call that into question, Boockvar wrote in a commentary obtained by CNBC.

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ADP and Moody's Analytics reported that the private sector added 179,000 jobs in May, below the median forecast of 210,000 from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, the trade deficit mushroomed $3 billion to $47.2 billion in April, the highest total since July 2012.

On the plus side, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s services index hit a nine-month high of 56.3 in May, up from 55.2 in April.

"Whether this means 2.5 percent [GDP] growth or something north of 3 percent is not obvious, but all of the evidence still points to something closer to the former rather than the latter," Boockvar wrote.

To be sure, the ISM report drew optimism from other analysts. "The strong momentum we saw the past few months is being sustained," Millan Mulraine, deputy head of U.S. research at TD Securities, told Bloomberg.

The ISM data "certainly signal growth to 4 percent and employment growth in excess of 200,000," he said.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Friday's jobs report to show a payroll increase of more than 200,000 for May.

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Economy
GDP growth isn't all that it's cracked up to be, says Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group.
Boockvar, GDP, growth, ISM
265
2014-20-05
Thursday, 05 June 2014 02:20 PM
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