Blackstone Group Lp., the private equity and real estate firm run by Steve Schwarzman, may decline further because of its investment values and performance fees, according to Keuka Capital in
a Seeking Alpha blog post.
“Blackstone Group Lp.'s risky business model is now coming home to roost,” the blog said. “I recommend investors wait for a lower entry point, as a 6 percent yield is not high enough to compensate for Blackstone's inherent risks.”
Blackstone’s stock is down 1.2 percent this year through intraday Oct. 21, compared with a 1.1 percent decline for the S&P 500 stock index. The company this month reported a third-quarter loss of $416 million, its first loss in four years, as the stock market slumped.
“The company's unrealized performance fees plummeted further into negative territory, which I consider a leading indicator of realized performance fees (and therefore Blackstone's distribution),” according to Keuka Capital. “Despite nearly all sell-side analysts having a "buy" on the stock (in and of itself a bearish indicator), the stock has fallen from $42 to under $35, a roughly 20 percent decline.”
Blackstone this month raised a $15.8 billion fund to invest in global real estate. Real estate reportedly is poised to be one of the hottest sectors for mergers and acquisitions growth in the coming year, even if the Federal Reserve finally begins raising interest rates,
according to Forbes.
“Due diligence activity in real estate during the first half of 2015 was up 57%, according to Intralinks’ Deal Flow Predictor which forecasts M&A activity six months into the future, the largest increase for any industry, according to the magazine.
“This may be surprising because investors have been anticipating rising interest rates, which ultimately should act as a brake on such a finance-dependent industry. But so far this year, real estate M&A is on a roll. Announced deals in North America were up 37% during the first half of the year compared to the year-ago period, while deal value was up 94%,” Forbes reported.
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