In bear markets, investors have always found comfort from in history. In the long term, the trend in stock prices has been up. This time is different and investors should be preparing for the worst rather than hiding behind beliefs that worked in the old days.

That two century up trend was due to the growth of the U.S. economy. From its founding until just a few years ago,

Americans could count on growth because of the country’s character. In recent years, the character of the country changed as dependence on government replaced initiative for many.

The dependent class, by some measures more than half the country, is not generating growth and that holds back the nation’s economy.

Another factor that drove growth was investor’s desire to build. Canals, railroads, the interstate highway system and airports fueled growth. Now projects like that feed a bureaucracy determined to prevent construction. Without an ability to build, economic potential is limited.

These trends are especially troubling now that the economy is “due” for a recession. The current expansion is the fifth longest on record. The record dates back to 1857 and includes 33 expansions.

The next recession will be the first one to start with interest rates near zero. Interest rates have always helped correct the economy and that tool is unavailable this time. The impact is likely to be a longer than average recession and a bear market that tests the faith of investors.