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3 Unloved Bank Stocks Investors Should Consider

3 Unloved Bank Stocks Investors Should Consider

By    |   Friday, 23 October 2020 03:58 PM EDT

The U.S. bank sector has been pummeled this year but investors hunting for bargains there may need deep reserves of patience as banks are particularly sensitive to low interest rates, the uneven economic recovery and the muddy stimulus outlook.

However, some experts recently told Barron’s that there are a few bank shares investors should consider buying.

“The financials have represented a glass half full, half empty investment with the markets believing the worst is over but not necessarily convinced that they are in a recovery,” Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies, wrote in a recent note.

He explained that “overly restrictive” terms under the Federal Reserve’s Main Street Lending Program have made banks reluctant to lend and that banks would face a better operating environment if those restrictions were relaxed.

Analysts at UBS expect it will take six to nine months for investors to warm to the sector, provided there is evidence of a pickup in loan growth and higher interest rates. More fiscal stimulus and a COVID-19 vaccine would help, too, they said, according to Barron’s.

“With valuations quite low, we think downside risks for the sector are minimal,” David Lefkowitz, head of equities Americas at UBS, recently wrote to clients.

But while some investors are avoiding the sector, some analysts suggest investing in names that are expected to do well in the current environment and after the recovery.

Morgan Stanley (MS) continues to be a winner in the eyes of Steven Chubak, executive director at Wolfe Research. It was one of the few banks whose shares rose after reporting earnings, and it should continue to benefit from its acquisition of E*Trade and its recently announced plans to acquire Eaton Vance (EV).

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is another stock Chubak likes, given its positive trends in consumer fees and flexibility with expenses.

Wells Fargo (WFC), which has gained some support from analysts in recent months because of its turnaround prospects is one that Chubak was disappointed in. Nevertheless, he encourages investors to be open-minded.

“In our view this is merely a question of timing as the expense opportunity is clear…and while shares will likely remain rangebound for the next couple of months, we see risk / reward as very compelling at about 70% of [tangible book value] and would encourage investors to stay the course,” Chubak wrote.

Banks have been such a drag on the broader S&P financial index that its 19% year-to-date decline is second only to energy’s 49.9% drop among the S&P 11 major sectors.

However, even after a round of recent upbeat earnings, investors have shied away from the U.S. financial sector which has failed to share in the broader market gains since March, MarketWatch explained.

The lack of a rebound indicates deeper, fundamental concerns are holding back bank stocks even if lawmakers hash out a deal, according to Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a quantitative strategist at J.P. Morgan.

“While stimulus expectations post the U.S. election should be supportive for traditional cyclical and value stocks, it may not have the impact the consensus currently assumes,” said Panigirtzoglou, in a recent note.

To be sure, if lawmakers in Washington manage to reach an agreement, a new fiscal stimulus package could help banks if it boosts U.S. loan growth, interest rates and economic activity, Reuters said.

Investors are unconvinced that recent gains will be sustainable as the Federal Reserve has signaled plans to keep overnight rates low for the foreseeable future in order to aid an economic recovery, which is expected to take years.

“You’re looking at years for this sector to make a full recovery. It will take a lot of positive things to happen in the U.S. economy for it to get back to the type of performance we are seeing in the broader S&P,” said Rick Meckler, partner, Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey. “Investors, in my view, will need to be patient.”

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StreetTalk
Investors appear unwilling to shake off nagging worries about the path of the economic recovery and embrace bank stocks.
bank, stocks, buying, investors
652
2020-58-23
Friday, 23 October 2020 03:58 PM
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