Investors are already hyperaware of expectations the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates and squeeze bank profits. But there’s a lot more in the shadows worth keeping an eye on.

Here are some things other than Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that should be on radar screens as shareholders, stung by the KBW Bank Index’s 20% plunge last year, assess whether bank stocks will keep lagging in the second half or may be set to rally. So far this year, the bank index has rebounded 14%, trailing the S&P 500’s 18% advance.

Recession Fears

A slowing economy leads all lending worries, as borrowers both small and large might pull back -- and may even suffer losses -- if growth recedes.

Trade concerns are lingering too, even though the U.S. and China have signaled a truce for now. This week, Morgan Stanley lowered its growth forecast for the global economy, saying that the Trump-Xi pact wasn’t enough to remove the uncertainty around trade policy. That’s likely to weigh on the growth outlook, regardless of likely monetary policy easing, the bank’s economists said.

For banks, “earnings growth prospects remain closely tied to GDP growth,” which influences the yield curve, interest rates and financing demand, Credit Suisse’s Susan Roth Katzke wrote in a note previewing the second-quarter reporting season, which kicks off July 15 when Citigroup Inc. reports.

Soaring Tech Spending

Banks face formidable competition in providing financial services, not only from each other, but also from big tech firms like Alphabet Inc., Apple Inc., and Facebook Inc., which is planning a new cryptocurrency. There’s also a threat from emerging fintech firms. Banks are spending heavily to keep their systems up to date and to fend off cyber attacks, too.

Last quarter, JPMorgan said its technology budget would increase by $600 million to about $11.4 billion, solidifying its spot as a top spender in the tech arms race among financial firms. At a late May conference, Citigroup CEO Michael Corbat said his bank spends about $8 billion a year on tech, to “run the bank, grow the bank, protect the bank.”

Democrats May Gain Strength

Ahead of the second debate among Democrats running for president, some analysts warned that investors may be underestimating the risks posed by the possibility that the party, particularly Senator Elizabeth Warren, will win in 2020. For banks, those risks might include higher taxes and calls to break them up.

Even if Trump and the Republicans keep control over the White House and the Senate, the president’s de-regulatory agenda may slow.

Geopolitical Surprises

Trump may have hailed his late June meeting with Kim Jong Un, but tensions with North Korea aren’t resolved. Worries about Middle East conflict remain as well, particularly with Iran, which said early in July that it had exceeded limits set on its enriched-uranium stockpile.

And don’t forget about the Western hemisphere. Even as Trump said tariffs against Mexico are off the table after the country stepped up efforts to stem migrant flows, the U.S. faces other challenges further south. Efforts to drive Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power by sanctioning Americans who buy and finance his country’s oil have failed so far.