Tags: atlanta | fed | gdp | growth | economy

Atlanta Fed Lifts Growth View to 3 Percent on Consumer Spending

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Friday, 14 December 2018 03:32 PM

The U.S. economy is expanding at a 3.0 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter based on steady retail sales growth and stronger-than-forecast industrial output in November, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Friday.

This was faster than the 2.4 percent pace for fourth-quarter gross domestic product that the Atlanta Fed’s GDP program calculated a week ago. The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, December 18.

Hours before the Atlanta Fed revision, the government said. U.S. consumer spending gathered momentum in November as households bought furniture, electronics and a range of other goods, which could further allay fears of a significant slowdown in the American economy even as the outlook overseas continued to darken.

The upbeat data from the Commerce Department on Friday bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for a fourth time this year at its Dec. 18-19 policy meeting, despite moderating inflation and tighter financial market conditions.

It also stood in stark contrast to reports from China showing a dramatic fall-off in retail sales in the world's second-largest economy and from Europe where a key measure of business activity expanded at its slowest rate in four years.

The U.S. central bank has hiked rates three times this year.

"Today's report shows Fed officials consumers just aren't confident, they are also putting their money where the mouths are and buying enough goods to keep the economy humming," said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services surged 0.9 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.7 percent increase in October.

These so-called core retail sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, were previously reported to have gained 0.3 percent in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core retail sales rising 0.4 percent last month.

November's increase in core retail sales and upward revisions to October's data suggested a brisk pace of consumer spending in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, increased at a 3.6 percent annualized rate in the July-September quarter.

A sharp sell-off on Wall Street and partial inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve had stoked fears of a recession. But worries over the economy's health were eased on Thursday after government data showed the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell back to a near 49-year low last week.

A Reuters poll released on Thursday showed economists now see the risk of recession in the next two years at 40 percent, up from 35 percent last month.

In the wake of the strong core retail sales numbers, economists bumped up estimates for fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth to as high as a 3.0 percent rate from around a 2.4 percent pace.

The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the July-September period. Spending is being boosted by a tightening labor market, which is starting to spur faster wage growth, lower taxes and moderate inflation. It remains strong despite the sharp stock market losses.

The dollar hit a 19-month peak against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose, while stocks on Wall Street fell on fears the global economy was slowing.

Consumer spending in the fourth quarter could also get a boost from a surge in demand for utilities in November.

In a separate report on Friday, the Fed said industrial production rebounded 0.6 percent last month after falling 0.2 percent in October.

Industrial output was driven by a 3.3 percent surge in utilities production as an unseasonably cold November boosted demand for heating. Mining production rose 1.7 percent.

But manufacturing output was unchanged after dipping in October, indicating that obstacles remain for the economy despite consumers' exuberance.

"We expect to see continued softening in the pace of manufacturing growth in the coming year, as both U.S. and global growth slow and the dollar remains a headwind for exporters," said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Overall retail sales, however, rose only 0.2 percent in November as cheaper gasoline undercut sales at service stations. Gasoline prices have dropped about 40 cents per gallon since October, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Oil prices have fallen by a third since the start of October amid concerns about oversupply and cooling global growth.

Retail sales increased by an upwardly revised 1.1 percent in October. They were previously reported to have surged 0.8 percent.

Sales at service stations tumbled 2.3 percent last month, the biggest drop since May 2017, after rising 3.2 percent in October. Auto sales gained 0.2 percent after accelerating 1.5 percent in the prior month.

Sales at building material stores slipped 0.3 percent.

Receipts at clothing stores dropped 0.2 percent after jumping 1.3 percent in October. The drop in clothing sales probably reflects deep discounting by retailers seeking to lure shoppers.

Online and mail-order retail sales surged 2.3 percent, the largest gain in a year, after increasing 0.8 percent in October.

Receipts at furniture stores rebounded 1.2 percent. Sales at electronics and appliance stores increased 1.4 percent. Spending at hobby, musical instrument and book stores increased 0.4 percent. But sales at restaurants and bars fell 0.5 percent after rising 0.6 percent in October.

© 2019 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.

   
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The U.S. economy is expanding at a 3.0 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter based on steady retail sales growth and stronger-than-forecast industrial output in November, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Friday.
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2018-32-14
Friday, 14 December 2018 03:32 PM
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