The U.S. economy is growing at a 4.7 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Tuesday, following the latest data on construction spending and factory activity.
This was faster than the 4.1 percent GDP growth pace calculated by the regional Fed’s forecast program on Aug. 30.
The Atlanta Fed program raised its estimates on consumer spending growth in the third quarter to 3.6 percent from 3.0 percent and private fixed investment growth in the third quarter to 4.3 percent from 3.0 percent.
Earlier Tuesday, the government said domestic construction spending edged up 0.1 percent in July, while the Institute for Supply Management said its barometer on factory activity climbed to 61.3 in August, the highest level since May 2004.
And while U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated to more than a 14-year high in August, boosted by a surge in new orders, there are growing concerns over rising raw material costs as a result of import tariffs could restrain further growth.
The ISM described demand as remaining “robust,” but cautioned that “the nation’s employment resources and supply chains continue to struggle.” According to the ISM, respondents to the survey were “again overwhelmingly concerned about tariff-related activity, including how reciprocal tariffs will impact company revenue and current manufacturing locations.”
President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policy has led to an escalating trade war with China and tit-for-tat import tariffs with other trading partners, including the European Union, Canada and Mexico.
Trump has defended the duties on steel and aluminum imports and a range of Chinese goods as necessary to protect American industries from what he says is unfair foreign competition.
Economists have warned that the tariffs could disrupt supply chains, undercut business investment and slow the economy’s momentum.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, September 5.
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