NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - A U.S. recession is not
imminent despite the inversion of a part of the U.S. Treasury
yield curve which has been "artificially pressured" by some
investors, BlackRock Inc, the world's largest asset
manager, said in a note on Friday.
The closely watched gap between two-year and 10-year yields,
whose inversion has preceded past recessions, turned negative
last week, fueling a debate on whether the signal presages a
downturn this time around.
“We do not see a recession occurring in the near-term,” said
Gargi Chaudhuri, head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas,
at BlackRock.
“While we are hesitant to say that this time is different,
we note that many factors now differ from previous yield curve
inversions,” she wrote.
Longer-dated yields had been pushed artificially low by
investors such as pension funds with improved funding status,
contributing to the curve inversion, she said.
Inversions of key parts of the Treasury yield curve – which
occur when yields on shorter-term Treasuries exceed those for
longer-dated government bonds and signal economic worries – have
concerned investors in recent weeks, as the Federal Reserve
grows more aggressive in its fight to slow the economy and
tackle inflation.
Analysts have said the central bank's unprecedented bond
purchases, as well as excess savings after the coronavirus
crisis, are holding longer-dated yields lower than they would
otherwise be.
The 2s/10s yield curve has been steepening
this week, with the 10-year yield standing 18.8 basis points
higher than the yield of two-year notes on Friday.
BlackRock's Chaudhuri said more hawkish signals by the
central bank - increasingly determined to tighten financial
conditions through rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction to
fight inflation - have contributed to the curve steepening.
"We still see room for longer end interest rates to move
modestly higher from here," she said.
(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia in New York
Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Matthew Lewis)
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