(Updates Monday's story after the RBA meeting)
LONDON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - After a summer in which stocks
have hit a seemingly never-ending run of record highs, September
brings a series of monetary and political events that could jolt
investors out of their complacency.
The will-they-won't-they debate over trimming pandemic-era
stimulus gets an airing with several G10 central banks holding
meetings -- Australia's central bank on Tuesday confirmed plans
to taper. A showdown over U.S. national debt alongside crucial
elections in Japan and Germany add to the risks.
Here are eight events, listed chronologically, which
investors will watch in September:
TAPER DOWN UNDER -- SEPT. 7
The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday confirmed it was
trimming its bond buying program in the first test this month
of central banks' determination to stick with plans to cut
stimulus.
The central bank surprised some by reducing its bond buying
by A$1 billion ($745.20 million) a week to A$4 billion, though
it also extended the program to at least mid-February, which
was seen as a dovish concession.
The rapid spread of the Delta variant, stay-at-home orders
in major cities and a slowing economy had prompted speculation
the RBA would delay tapering altogether.
But RBA Governor Philip Lowe predicted an economic rebound
once vaccination rates rose and restrictions were eased.
WHO LET THE HAWKS OUT? ECB MEETS -- SEPT. 9
Thursday's European Central Bank meeting could be a lively
affair. ECB policy hawks have been out in force, arguing now is
the time to start debating the end of a stimulus scheme
.
The ECB might opt to slow the pace of purchases but chief
Christine Lagarde will likely stress this is not the same as
tapering.
Communicating that will not be easy. The risk is markets
interpret such a step as hawkish -- lifting the euro and
sovereign borrowing costs.
CANADA ELECTION -- SEPT. 20
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called a snap vote
two years early and now faces a tight race.
Trudeau is hoping his management of the pandemic and vaccine
rollout will deliver him a majority, but polls show his Liberals
in a statistical tie with Erin O'Toole's Conservatives.
Canadian elections rarely register for global markets, but
with the Liberals proposing tax hikes on big banks and both
candidates proposing spending increases, this one will be
watched closely.
FED TAPER TIMELINE -- SEPT. 21-22
Weak August U.S. payrolls have not entirely derailed
expectations the Federal Reserve might announce a taper timeline
at its September meeting. But with a year-end start to the taper
mostly priced in, focus is shifting to when interest rates may
rise.
Fed boss Jerome Powell could stress again that tapering and
rate increases are separate and that he regards current
inflation spikes as transitory.
Fed fund futures are pricing the first hike for early 2023.
And we should also know by the meeting whether it will be Powell
who presses the button on that rise -- his term expires in
February 2022. Ninety percent of economists polled by Reuters
expect his tenure to be extended.
NORWAY TO HIKE -- SEPT. 23
Norway is set to raise interest off 0%, becoming the first
of the G10 group of developed economies to do so.
A rate hike will demonstrate its willingness to look beyond
rising COVID-19 infections and to focus on a strongly recovering
economy.
Investors expect the rise, but confirmation that a major
central bank is actually tightening rather than just talking
about it -- especially after New Zealand unexpectedly balked at
raising in August -- would still mark a significant moment for
markets hooked on cheap cash.
GERMANY VOTES -- SEPT. 26
Western Europe's longest-ruling incumbent leader, Angela
Merkel, steps down as German chancellor after 16 years in charge
and four straight election victories.
The election has a wider-than-usual range of possible
outcomes, especially as the center-left Social Democrats are
leading in the opinion polls, pulling ahead of Merkel's
conservatives for the first time in 15 years.
Two key questions for markets -- what will a new government
mean for fiscal policy at home and at the European level? And
what does it mean for European integration?
JAPAN'S NEXT PREMIER -- SEPT. 29
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's decision to resign has given
a surprise twist to Japanese politics.
Amid a wave of COVID-19 infections, Suga's popularity had
sunk but there is no frontrunner in the race to succeed him as
chief of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
Possible candidates include ex-foreign minister Fumio
Kishida and the popular minister in charge of Japan's
vaccination rollout, Taro Kono. Whoever triumphs is assured to
become premier given the party's majority in parliament's lower
chamber.
The contest is slated for Sept. 29, and the winner must call
the general election by Nov. 28.
TOWARDS THE X-DATE
The U.S. Treasury technically hit its $28 trillion debt
"ceiling" a month ago but by dipping into its bank accounts, it
has postponed the day it runs out of borrowing room. Yet the day
will soon come -- probably in October -- when it lacks the money
to pay its obligations.
To prevent a government shutdown or worse, a technical
default, Congress must this month raise or suspend that limit.
Republican senators, opposed to the Democrats' $3.5 trillion
infrastructure plan, have vowed to vote against raising the
ceiling.
Back in 2011 the debt ceiling bickering induced S&P Global
to cut U.S. credit ratings to AA+ from AAA. Fitch might do the
same this time, leaving the United States with only a Moody's
triple-A rating.
While there is no sign bond markets are pricing in a risk of
default, that could change. In the words of NatWest analysts, it
"sets up a September to remember in DC."
(Reporting by Tommy Wilkes, Sujata Rao and Dhara Ranasinghe;
Editing by Hugh Lawson and Raissa Kasolowsky)
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