(Updates column sent late Friday to show NYSE, Nasdaq plan to
open as usual on Monday)
* NYSE, Nasdaq plan to open Monday
* Good night, Irene: Hurricane could stymie trading
* Focus shifts to Obama from Bernanke
* Jobs report ahead, ISM factory index seen falling
By Rodrigo Campos
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are setting up
for another turbulent week that will begin with a focus, oddly
enough, on the weather.
Traders juggling European debt worries and soft economic
data are now staring at satellite images, tracking the path of
Hurricane Irene, expected to hit New York over the weekend.
The unusually large storm traveled up the U.S. East Coast
on Friday, threatening 55 million people, and was expected to
cause billions of dollars in property damage.
Major U.S. exchanges are preparing to deal with power
outages and flooding, and that could affect trading on
Monday.
For now at least, the NYSE and Nasdaq expect to be open
for trading as usual on Monday morning. The New York Stock
Exchange and Nasdaq repeated Saturday that, despite the
arrival of Hurricane Irene in New York, both expect to conduct
a normal trading session Monday.
The Big Board said a final decision would be made over
the weekend, particularly on its trading floor in the
low-lying financial district of Manhattan, which could see a
storm surge and flooding.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and exchange
officials will discuss the storm's impact and plans for
opening trading at the start of the week in a conference call
Sunday afternoon at 1 p.m., according to a source familiar
with the plan.
One senior trader at a proprietary trading firm in New
York said Friday that Hurricane Irene had destroyed any chance
of a rally that had looked likely, given the extent of short
positions that had been building in equity markets.
"If this hurricane is a disaster, my guess is we are going
to be down 30-40 handles on Monday," he said.
Property insurers Allstate and Travelers
hit two-year intraday lows on Friday, partly on worries over
claims due to the hurricane.
"We intend to be open, but Mother Nature may have other
plans," said Lou Pastina, executive vice president of NYSE
operations.
After that, the focus may shift from the Federal Reserve's
economic outlook to the August payrolls report on Friday.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a much anticipated speech to
central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said most of the
burden for ensuring a solid foundation for long-term growth
lay at the feet of the White House and the U.S. Congress.
President Barack Obama is expected to detail plans to
create jobs after he returns from vacation the week after
next. Investors will have a few days to position themselves
ahead of Obama's speech, with the key payrolls report for
August due Friday.
"This was clearly a punt from Bernanke to Obama, who will
announce a jobs initiative soon," said Lance Roberts, CEO of
Streettalk Advisors, an investment management firm in Houston.
"The market thinks we may now get stimulus from the
government."
THE WHITE KNIGHT: TRICHET?
In a move opposite to Bernanke's baton-handing to
Washington, some say stocks may find a white knight in the
European Central Bank's head Jean-Claude Trichet.
Some hoped that his comments, during a panel at Jackson
Hole on Saturday, would open the door for the ECB to buy more
bonds from countries struggling with rising borrowing costs.
News earlier this month that the ECB was actively buying
government bonds in the secondary market boosted equities by
giving some relief to investors worried about the credit and
fiscal health of the euro zone.
"I'm going to see if (Trichet) is standing by that policy
or shying away from it," said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio
strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls,
Wisconsin.
"If he stands by it, that could be a positive for the
equities markets because it's going to suggest that if
anything, the ECB will try to step in to handle liquidity
problems on the European banking system and they don't have to
just rely on the European Union leaders."
Recent concern over the exposure of some European banks to
the declining prices of euro-zone bonds pushed lenders' shares
sharply lower, with an index of European bank stocks
closing lower Friday for a fifth straight week. The long
slide has resulted in European bank shares losing more than
one-fourth of their market value.
AN UGLY AUGUST
August is shaping up as the worst month for stocks since
February 2009, partly on the belief that the economy was
headed for a double-dip recession.
For the month so far, the Dow Jones industrial average
is down 7.1 pct, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index
is down 8.9 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index
is down 10 percent, still in correction mode. Those losses for
August so far threaten to overshadow the bright spot at
Friday's close, when all three indexes ended the day higher
and scored their first weekly gains in more than a month.
The payrolls report on Friday is expected to show the U.S.
economy created 80,000 jobs this month, according to
economists polled by Reuters. In contrast, 117,000 jobs were
added to U.S. non-farm payrolls in July.
The U.S. unemployment rate is seen steady at 9.1 percent.
Wall Street will have to deal with a torrent of data
throughout the week, including personal income and consumption
on Monday, S&P/Case-Shiller home prices on Tuesday, factory
orders on Wednesday and the Institute for Supply Management's
factory activity index on Thursday.
A Reuters poll forecasts that ISM's August survey is
expected to show factory activity shrank for the first time
since the recession.
(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Sunday. Questions or comments
on this column can be e-mailed to:
rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)
(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by
Jonathan Spicer, Edward Krudy and Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by
Jan Paschal)
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