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POLL-ANALYSTS VIEW-Gold Seen Gleaming Still Brighter in 2011

Tuesday, 25 Jan 2011 09:21 AM

LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Precious metals are expected to build on a stellar 2010 this year as risk aversion and persistently low interest rates boost their allure, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Expectations for gold's performance have risen sharply, with the survey of 65 leading analysts, traders and fund managers predicting gold will average $1,450 an ounce this year, well above its record high of $1,430.95 an ounce.

A similar poll in July found most respondents expected gold to average $1,228 an ounce in 2011. Last year the average LBMA gold fixing was $1,225.60 an ounce.

Below are a selection of comments from respondents to the survey. All prices are in dollars per ounce.

GOLD

2011 2012

Mean $1,454.52 $1,471.27

Median $1,450.00 $1,420.00

No of F'casts 65 49

Spot gold was bid at around $1,330 an ounce by mid-morning on Tuesday.

JAMES STEEL, ANALYST, HSBC

"We believe that gold will continue to attract safe-haven buying from risk-averse investors this year, as European Union sovereign debt concerns persist. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue with its programme of quantitative easing (QE) in 2011 to prevent deflation from taking root, while the pace of economic activity in the emerging world will likely remain strong, igniting inflation fears...The combination of continued QE in the U.S. and rising inflation pressures in the emerging world is a particularly bullish cocktail for gold."

HOU XINQIANG, ANALYST, JINRUI FUTURES

"Changes in the geopolitical situation will trigger changes in foreign policies and relations between major countries, which may influence gold prices. The economic recovery in the U.S. and the euro zone is another key issue which will drive gold prices. In addition, market liquidity, which is mainly determined by the shifts and timing of shifts in monetary policies in the euro zone and the U.S., will amplify moves in gold prices. Speculative buying has been a key player in gold's rally in the past two years and will continue to push prices in the future. On the demand side, emerging markets, such as India and China, should be closely watched."

ROBIN BHAR, ANALYST, CREDIT AGRICOLE

"There are enough things to keep us worried going forward. In a year's time, hopefully there will have been some kind of resolution of the euro zone debt situation, and maybe then we will start to worry about the U.S. deficit or the deficit in Japan. So the fear factor won't totally be alleviated. There will always be something that the markets will have to worry about. For portfolio diversification, there will still be people wanting to diversify further into gold."

ONG YI LING, ANALYST, PHILLIP FUTURES PTE

"The slow and uneven recovery of the global economy will likely mean relatively loose monetary policy to stimulate growth. The U.S. Fed has to unwind its asset purchases first before raising interest rates. It is thus unlikely to raise rates until the end of 2011. Gold could be sought as a hedge against uncertainty and alternative currency. Should gold prices trend higher, other precious metals may also benefit from their positive correlation with gold."

SUGANDHA SACHDEVA, RESEARCH ANALYST, RELIGARE COMMODITIES

"One more factor that will... drive gold prices will be the launch of China's first fund Lion Global Gold Fund, (which) will invest in gold-backed exchange traded funds overseas. This fund could bring about a new wave of investment demand in the country, and more such funds might enter the market."

SILVER

2011 2012

Mean $30.03 $30.36

Median $29.83 $27.90

No of F'casts 56 42

Spot silver was bid at around $26.65 an ounce by mid-morning on Tuesday.

TOM KENDALL, ANALYST, CREDIT SUISSE

"When you look at the chart for silver since the back end of August last year, you have to think that rate of appreciation in the price surely can't continue, and I don't think it can in the coming 12 months. But definitely the sentiment towards silver from much of the investment market is still positive, and industrial demand is strong."

FREDERIC PANIZZUTTI, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, MKS FINANCE

"We expect silver to remain in the focus, as it shall increasingly gain consideration as an alternative to gold in investors' portfolios. Increased physical buying interest and a wider community of buyers across the globe shall lead silver to reach new highs. We would not be surprised if silver picked somewhere between $45-$50 an ounce in 2011. This shall not happen without high levels of volatility and several sharp downside corrections."

DANIEL SMITH, ANALYST, STANDARD CHARTERED

"Silver has outperformed gold recently, but we feel that there is now too much speculative froth in the market and it is overdue a correction. As a result, we think silver prices will pull back in the months ahead, especially if the U.S. dollar strengthens, as we expect. However, the underlying fundamentals are still good and we expect silver prices to benefit from rising gold prices in the year ahead; and industrial demand in China should remain supportive for most of 2011."

PLATINUM

2011 2012

Mean $1806.90 $1892.74

Median $1800.00 $1900.00

No of F'casts 46 38

Spot platinum was bid at around $1,790 an ounce by mid-morning on Tuesday.

DAVID JOLLIE, ANALYST, MITSUI GLOBAL PRECIOUS METALS

"Over the short term, platinum looks likely to remain in surplus. However, the medium term picture for platinum looks more positive in terms of price appreciation: supply will remain constrained and is likely to suffer from cost inflation, supporting the price. Impending legislation to control emissions from heavy duty and off-road diesel vehicles will be positive for platinum demand."

SUKI COOPER, ANALYST, BARCLAYS CAPITAL

"With more than three quarters of the world's platinum supply mined in one country, risks to further growth in output remain concentrated. Producers had indicated prices would need to trade north of $1500/oz in order to support an increase in output. Structural issues such as lower head grades, delays in starting the coal-fired power stations and cost pressures arising as a result of the strength of the rand have added to mining difficulties. But serial challenges such as safety related stoppages, industrial unrest and Eskom increasing its power tariffs still persist, making for a murky supply outlook."

PETER FERTIG, CONSULTANT, QUANTITATIVE COMMODITY RESEARCH

"The authorities have taken measures to reduce new car registrations in Beijing, but the risk is that this measure would also be applied to other areas. This would be a negative factor for the PGMs and is one reason that we expect the PGMs to perform worse than gold and silver."

KOICHI IWANAGA, GENERAL MANAGER, SUMITOMO CORP

"Currently, auto catalyst users prefer palladium to platinum. But between end 2011 and end 2012, a further rise in palladium prices would force some users to buy platinum. The shift would be accelerated if palladium prices rise to $1,000 an ounce."

PALLADIUM

2011 2012

Mean $792.52 $838.35

Median $795.00 $850.00

No of F'casts 45 37

Spot palladium was bid at just above $780 an ounce by mid-morning on Tuesday.

PATRICIA MOHR, VICE-PRESIDENT, SCOTIABANK GROUP

"Palladium is expected to be the top performing precious metal, because of its use in auto catalytic converters in small-engine, gasoline-driven cars. Strong auto sales in 'emerging' markets such as China and India and tightening vehicle emissions standards by 2012 will drive up demand for palladium, while supply will be constrained."

BERNARD DAHDAH, RESEARCH ANALYST, NATIXIS

"If talk that Russian palladium state supplies are running low turns out true, then this will be a considerable factor pushing palladium prices up. South African mine strikes and electricity issues will remain a worry. Fund and speculative buying will still play a role as many investors remain focused on car sales. A slowdown in car sales from developing countries might send a negative sign and lead to some outflows."

WALTER DE WET, ANALYST, STANDARD BANK

"Palladium remains our favourite in the precious metals complex, with an estimated deficit this year of 440,000 ounces. We see good value in palladium on approach of $700 an ounce. Palladium could be in a fundamental deficit in 2011 for the first time since 2007."

DANIEL SMITH, ANALYST, STANDARD CHARTERED

"We still believe that palladium is likely to outperform platinum in the year ahead, although after the recent sharp rise in the former we think the potential for outperformance by palladium is now far more limited than it was. A strong auto sector in China and the U.S. should keep prices on an upward track, but additional sales of material from Russian stockpiles represent the main downside threat to prices."

(Reporting by Jan Harvey; Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper in London, Rujun Shen in Singapore, Risa Maeda in Tokyo, Frank Tang in New York, Siddesh Mayenkar in Mumbai; Editing by Anthony Barker)

© 2017 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.

   
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LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Precious metals are expected to build on a stellar 2010 this year as risk aversion and persistently low interest rates boost their allure, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. Expectations for gold's performance have risen sharply, with the...
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2011-21-25
Tuesday, 25 Jan 2011 09:21 AM
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