Apple shares have returned a whopping 73 percent over the last year, and the party is hardly over, says Jack Hough of Barron's.

"Look for the stock price to rise to $160 over the next year for a 25 percent return including dividends," he writes.

"Expect a big dividend hike when the company updates its capital-return program, likely in April. The current yield looks undersized at 1.5 percent."

Monday, Apple shares surged to a record-high close, jumping more than 2.7 percent to $133, and hitting a market cap of nearly $775 billion.

Apple's market value stood at about $774.69 billion, according to FactSet and CNBC data, making it worth more than twice as much as any other U.S. publicly traded company.

So what's going to push Apple higher?

• "First, it sits on cash and investments worth $30 a share, up from $18 a share back in September 2012. Net of this cash, the shares are cheaper than they appear," Hough says.
• "Second, Apple’s earnings are unusually clean. Management doesn’t point investors toward a spiffed-up measure of earnings that excludes things like the cost of issuing stock to employees, as many big tech firms do.
• "Third, Apple’s free-cash generation—what matters in the long run for paying dividends, buying back shares, and investing in new gadgets and services—easily exceeds its earnings.

Morningstar analyst Brian Colello puts Apple's fair value at $120.

"We believe Apple's strength lies in its experience and expertise in integrating hardware, software, services, and third-party applications into differentiated devices that allow Apple to capture a premium on hardware sales," he writes on Morningstar.com.

"Although Apple has a sterling brand, strong product pipeline, and ample opportunity to gain share in its various end markets, short product life cycles and intense competition will prevent the firm from resting on its laurels, or carving out a wide economic moat, in our opinion."

S&P Capital IQ Equity Analyst Scott Kessler has a "hold" rating on Apple stock. He mostly offers praise for the company, but says, "our 12-month target price of $125 reflects comparisons with calendar year 2015 P/E and P/E-to-growth multiples of the S&P 1500 Technology sector."

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