Americans may be in for an unusually welcome surprise this tax season: bigger refund checks, the New York Post reports.

The average tax refund is expected to jump by about $1,000 this year, pushing typical payouts past $4,000. The filing season officially opened Tuesday.

The Treasury Department projects a staggering $429 billion in refunds will be issued during the 2026 tax season, up sharply from $329 billion last year, thanks largely to President Donald Trump’s signature second-term tax law.

The White House is touting the surge as the biggest refund season ever.

“Millions of Americans are poised to receive significantly larger tax refunds thanks to President Donald J. Trump’s landmark Working Families Tax Cuts Act — which every Democrat in Congress opposed,” the White House said in a statement, referring to legislation also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

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“The historic legislation is delivering the biggest tax refund season ever.”

Refunds are nothing new for most households. Last year, more than three-fifths of U.S. households received refunds averaging $3,167, according to data cited by The Wall Street Journal.

But this year’s jump is different — both in size and timing.

The refund surge reflects deliberate tax changes in the OBBB.

Republicans made the tax cuts retroactive to the 2025 tax year while leaving IRS withholding tables unchanged, meaning workers paid higher rates throughout the year and are now getting the full benefit back in lump sums just months before the midterm elections.

Not all filers receive refunds — about 60% do — but those who do are seeing sharply higher payouts.

The increase stems from multiple provisions in the law.

Raising the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $40,000 accounts for roughly one-quarter of the individual tax cuts, according to the Tax Foundation.

The single-largest driver is the new overtime deduction, which represents about $38.7 billion, or 30%, of the law’s $129 billion in individual tax relief for 2025.

Other contributors include the expanded standard deduction, the new senior bonus deduction, a higher child tax credit, and new deductions for tips and auto loan interest.

David A. Perez, CEO of Tax Maverick AI, said the scale and structure of this year’s refunds are highly unusual.

“This is not how tax relief is usually delivered,” Perez said. “Typically, when the government cuts taxes, withholding tables are updated so people see a little more money in every paycheck. That didn’t happen in 2025.”

Instead, he said, the retroactive nature of the law created what amounts to a forced savings account.

“Taxpayers were effectively forced to save that money with the Treasury for a year — and now it’s all being released at once,” Perez said.

Perez said the projected $429 billion in refunds represents roughly a 30% jump from last year — a surge he has not seen outside of extraordinary moments.

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“I haven’t seen a manufactured windfall quite like this since the stimulus checks,” he said. “But this is different, because it’s baked directly into the tax return itself.”

That distinction matters for the economy. Perez expects a sharp burst of consumer activity early in the year as refunds hit.

“Behaviorally, people treat a lump sum very differently than a small weekly raise,” he said.
“An extra $50 a week usually gets absorbed by groceries or gas.

“But a $4,000 refund in February feels like investable cash,” Perez emphasized. “People use it for big-ticket items — car down payments, vacations, or paying off high-interest credit card debt.”

The White House, meanwhile, is framing the refund surge as both immediate relief and long-term policy success.

“President Trump delivered the largest tax cut in history for middle- and working-class Americans, lowering taxes in every county in every state across the nation,” said White House spokesperson Kush Desai.

“This is yet another promise made, promise kept as President Trump continues to Make America Great Again,” Desai said.