of BNP, told CNBC that “the big news this year has been the negative demand shock" out of China.
“World trade flows have contracted for the first time in 30 years.” One result, he thinks, is that “US monetary policy is beginning to depend on Chinese monetary policy.”
Meanwhile, a drop of nearly 300 Dow points is no longer a big deal under the New Volatility Paradigm.
Speculation continues as to if and when the Fed will raise interest rates and how the Fed might deliver a year-end rally. On the former, we have a tip from Richard Fisher that the need for firms to window-dress their financials precludes action in December. How a rally will unfold is an open question, but this writer is relying on a sometimes reliable source: Ms. J. Yellen.
CEO of The Motley Fool Singapore, finds the FOMC’s decision “confusing” (Imagine that!), and he asks what the point is of the Fed indicating that it might still rates by the end of the year: “Are you telling me that uncertainty and volatility is going to disappear by the end of the year?”
This writer would say, no, and this is why the Fed will never raise rates. Kuo observed that the actions people are taking in response to ZIRP “are causing huge distortions.”
Martin Soong summed it up: “The hungry, desperate, overstretched hunt for yield will continue.”
CEO of Vansight, ridiculed the Fed for being unable to summon the courage to raise interest rates by .25% “when Volcker would raise them 2.00% over a weekend.”
He noted that ZIRP has not prevented the stresses, and he wondered whether the policy itself may have contributed to them “as people have sought yield and gone back to the same behavior that caused the 2008 crisis.”
Therefore, these stresses will continue. He predicted, “China will devalue its currency in 2016 and send tremors across the emerging market space.”
Based on a conference last week on financials, Tom Brown,
CEO of Second Curve Capital, touts Bank of America (BAC) and several regionals, but Nomi Prins, Senior Fellow at Demos, predicts that the group will remain volatile based on poor performance of trading operations.
CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa
displays data showing that based on 45 instances where the Fed decided not to raise rates, consumer stocks fared best in the ensuing month.
of Inflation Rotation, warns again that the Fed is causing the very uncertainty that it says is the reason is can’t raise rates.
He finds that, “This last cycle has been dominated by the illusion of central bank omnipotence, the last great bubble.” He predicts that volatility will continue high, but the US will not provide a refuge on the ground that it is “the cleanest dirty shirt of all.”
He warns that, “Getting drunk on all this free money can actually be damaging to one’s health.” Gayed also identifies with observers who are warning that the Fed will be unprepared for the next recession.
Finally, for those who might want to look at gold, Brian Kelly
explains why it is setting up for “a massive, massive short squeeze” that he thinks is headed for 1300-1400, and in the long run, above 2000,” but Tim Seymour would wait for a break through 1160.
Steve Grasso pointed out that GDX will outperform the gold price 3:1 on both the upside and the downside.
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