Tags: china | stocks | apple | investors

Pension Partners' Ed Dempsey Sees 10 Percent Tumble for US Stocks

By    |   Tuesday, 28 July 2015 09:22 AM

As China struggles to prop up its stock market, Ed Dempsey, chief investment officer at Pension Partners, told CNBC that the U.S. market has been taking its cues from what is happening in China and “no one knows exactly how much leverage is in those stocks.”

An interviewer asked why the Chinese don’t allow the free market to do its work.

A cynic might ask why, if the U.S. authorities insist on intervening to support a bubble in U.S. stocks, one would expect an admittedly communist government to refrain.

Dempsey responded that the Chinese “aren’t prepared” to handle a 2008-style decline such as occurred in the U.S.

He advised investors to watch the Chinese market to see whether the words of the Chinese authorities are sufficient to stabilize that market.

He’s asking whether the Chinese have learned lessons from the U.S. experience.

Again, a cynic might question whether the U.S. has learned much, if anything, from that experience except to double down and recreate a bubble, resolved now to buy stocks to stave off any serious decline.

Dempsey sees “risk aversion” in the behavior of U.S. investors and thinks a minimum 10% correction is in store, something he notes has not occurred in the last four years. Dempsey recommends long bonds, utilities, and other vehicles that would benefit from a “flight to safety.”

This writer would note that this is the first market that is aggressively sponsored by the government, with an election year already within sight, so some investors may choose to avail themselves of the Yellen put out of fear of missing out (FOMO) on an ongoing boom.

Perhaps the Yellen put will extend even to Chinese stocks.

However, Brian Blair, of Rosenblatt Securities, assures investors that all the metrics for Apple (AAPL) are doing great in China, and they have no reason to be concerned.

Taking another look at the high-yield bond market, CNBC’s Brian Sullivan asks Todd Gordon of TradingAmalytics.com and David Seaburg of Cowen and Co., whether developments in that market are starting to affect stocks.

Seaburg said flatly no, the market has already digested the weakness in that market, but he is scared about what will happen to some companies as they continue to refinance the bonds, a strategy that has worked for some time but may be running its course.

Gordon agreed that the high-yield market is giving off warning signals, but he said this has been going on for two years and he would continue to ignore them and stay long.

Perhaps traders who are saying, “Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!” should check with technician Carter Braxton Worth, who sees the upward trend in stocks flattening and points to internal numbers showing an imbalance in favor of declining stocks over advancing ones.

Finally, two inveterate bulls, Eugene Peroni and Michael Farr, predict rotation into growth stocks.

However, Farr warns the average investor to be cautious, whereas Peroni remains enthusiastic while acknowledging that the bull market is maturing. Farr is a bit skeptical of the ability of the Fed to continue to sponsor this market.

This writer and other skeptics and cynics hold that the Fed will keep peddling through the election, given that the administration has told rank-and-file investors they should be in mutual funds, and Yellen has said explicitly that the Fed stands behind broker-dealers and wants them to make their numbers.

A number of commentators have recognized that markets have never seen such aggressive support from the Fed.

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As China struggles to prop up its stock market, Ed Dempsey, CIO at Pension Partners, says the U.S. market has been taking its cues overnight from what is happening in China and "no one knows exactly how much leverage is in those stocks."
china, stocks, apple, investors
Tuesday, 28 July 2015 09:22 AM
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