Some commentators got excited about remarks Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made Wednesday at a conference in Washington about U.S. equity values being high. In the first clip, Don Luskin, Chief Investment Officer of TrendMacro, rightly
told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan not to worry about the equity comment given the spotty track record, going back to Greenspan, of Fed chairman when they opine about equity values. This writer would add that the extended bull market has been underwritten by the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy and the stock market has become, in effect, a government-sponsored enterprise as the authorities made winners out of equity investors and losers out of fixed-income savers.
In the
second clip, David Mann, Chief Economist, Asia, for Standard Chartered, focused on the likelihood that the Fed will not raise rates this year at all and will prolong “the most dovish hiking cycle” in the history of Fed rate management, and the stock market rally can continue for some time. His perspective is consistent with what this writer has said about the reluctance of the Fed to risk raising rates too early and upsetting Wall Street. Yellen’s remarks on the bond market were much more telling than her relatively offhanded comment that equity values are high. She articulated the possibility that bond premiums “can move very rapidly” and “there could be a sharp jump in long-term rates.” For this writer, this would mean that, as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recently said, the Fed should have acted last fall and has waited too long.
Next, Herb Greenberg, of Pacific Square Research, exclaimed “Yikes!” to CNBC’s Mandy Drury after Keurig Green Mountain dropped over 12% upon lowering guidance for the second quarter in a row, even as it prepares to introduce a cold product. Greenberg
stressed that the guidance on free cash flow has been cut in half, and he quoted the CEO as saying that the company is going through “a complex transition.” Thus, he said, the company “is not what it said it would be.” It looks like what it will be is an interesting situation for some time in the future.
Finally, Paul Sankey, of Wolfe Research,
added texture to the debate over fracking stocks when he lauded EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) to CNBC’s Scott Wapner as possibly the Apple of the oil industry for its ability to apply technology and lower its breakeven point, even as he allowed that David Einhorn might be right that about the long-term challenges of oil exploration. He called Pioneer Natural Resources (PDX) the leading takeover candidate and ExxonMobil the only oil company in a position to do such a deal.
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