With the Dow experiencing a moderate decline, Liz Ann Sonders, SVP and chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, articulated the “extreme frustration” of investors frustrated that, “What’s going on in yields hasn’t been supported by what’s going on in the economic landscape.”
She referred to a “seasonal slump” that has occurred this time of year for the past 20 years, and she then observed, “What’s missing is the very high correlation recently between U.S. long yields and G-7 long yields.”
She advised that action in foreign bond markets is more important than either inflation or economic indicators for the U.S. economy.
For example,
Sonders found there is practically no correlation between U.S. long yields and short yields, whereas there is an almost perfect correlation between U.S. long yields and German bund yields.
She attributed this action to the serial QE policies of the U.S., Japanese, and EU central banks.
She noted that the Fed only controls the short end of the yield curve and, “The “bond vigilantes have been in hibernation for quite a few years.”
She asserted to CNBC that the Fed really is “data dependent” and is struggling with the inflation and jobs aspects of the “dual mandate.”
Looking at stocks of the largest banks,
Cole Smead, MD and portfolio manager at Smead Capital, told CNBC it’s been “very frustrating” for investors when they get interested in banks and then they perform poorly for six months.
For him, “What’s been missing in the story is revenue growth.”
He sees growth in demand from middle America for home and car loans as the best proxy for revenue growth in banks like Bank of America.
He estimated that when rates rise 1% Bank of America makes $3 billion more, and he thinks the banks have nothing to fear from new entrants.
His firm owns Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo, however he “would not touch Citi,” because it does 70% of its business abroad, especially in Asia.
For investors who believe the Fed will raise interest rates later this year,
Andrew Keene, of Keene on the Market, who expects a rise in December, said he has been the least long in two and a half years, because this is the longest the market has gone without a 10% correction, and he thinks one is due over the next one to five years.
Part of his view is the lack of a “catalyst” for a move higher, but he sees a potential catalyst for an “ugly” down move in the prospect of a Fed rate hike and a spike in the ten-year Treasury to as high as 3.5%.
This writer would suggest that while Keene’s overall scenario is very iffy, the prospect of an interest rate spike is very real, and markets had a taste of that in May 2013 with the “taper tantrum.”
Also, investors should keep in mind that the extent of intervention by the authorities is unprecedented, and if a correction occurs, it would be naïve to expect the Fed to refrain from action in further support of equities.
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