Tags: Malmgren | Staley | Gartman | Zandi | JPMorgan

Global Authorities Continue to Grapple With QE, Bank Regulation

By    |   Monday, 18 May 2015 06:31 AM EDT

In the first clip, Philippa Malmgren, of DRPM Group, called it “inevitable” that investment and retail banking would be separated because it is necessary “from a social point of view, even if it didn’t make sense in terms of balance sheet.”

Looking at the implementation of measures under Vickers in the UK and Dodd-Frank in the U.S., she stressed the importance of looking at the political angle and questioned whether policy makers “understand what investment banking really is.”

She predicted that if investment and retail remain together, the authorities will impose taxes “in many forms. It will come in the form of audits, in the form of investigations like Libor. The risk taking is going to come under pressure no matter what you do.”

With respect to banks like HSBC that are scouting new venues, Malmgren cautioned, “There are limited locations on the planet where you can do these things.” This writer would observe that the financial lobbies are pushing back hard against regulation and casting themselves as victims rather than perpetrators of financial crises, and they have teams of lawyers, crisis managers, and public relations staff practiced in the management of Congress, regulators, and the press.

In the next clip, Jes Staley, of Blue Mountain Capital, former CEO of JPMorgan’s investment bank spoke with CNBC’s Kelly Evans about bank regulation, addressing a friendly question as to whether more regulation is needed or whether it would hold back the economy.

Staley referred to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that “the regulatory environment is ‘much more robust’ and ‘going to lead to safer institutions.’”

He added that talking to bankers shows that “the interchange with regulators around the world is at an unprecedented level.”

He asserted that this is combined with “much better capital levels, a much better liquidity profile. Undoubtedly the financial markets are significantly safer today than they were pre-crisis.”

Staley then concluded that companies, markets, and government “need large financial institutions.”

He argued that “large banks provide the oxygen for large corporations.” Ms. Evans noted that corporations are moving toward direct debt issuance.

This writer would add that Martin Mayer made the point four decades ago in The Bankers that the advent of commercial paper meant banks’ best customers could go directly to market with better credit than the banks.

Dennis Gartman updated his view of crude oil, saying that he thinks that market has bottomed, and, prompted by Joe Kernan’s suggestion that investors are looking risk-on/risk-off based on what the Fed will do, Gartner went on to predict that the Federal Reserve will move to tighten interest rates as soon as this summer and will engineer a gradual increase in rates in order to give fixed-income investors a chance to earn a return.

This writer continues to doubt that the move will be as soon or as orderly as Gartman expects.

The estimable Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, asked to comment on remarks by Charles Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago that the Fed could tighten as soon as June, said he thinks September or the end of the year is more likely.

He further predicted that while the dollar has come off its recent highs, it will go to parity with the euro.

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Robert-Feinberg
The estimable Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, asked to comment on remarks by Charles Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago that the Fed could tighten as soon as June, said he thinks September or the end of the year is more likely.
Malmgren, Staley, Gartman, Zandi, JPMorgan
545
2015-31-18
Monday, 18 May 2015 06:31 AM
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