In anticipation of a new statement from the Fed, the often pessimistic
Nouriel Roubini commented on froth in asset values “driven by zero policy rates in advanced economies,” with QE continuing in the Eurozone and Japan.
He told CNBC’s Kelly Evans that the authorities were bent on increasing values in homes and stocks, but this can lead to asset bubbles, “and the tools to deal with these bubbles are not going to work.”
He warned that if the Fed exits slowly from QE, this will set the stage for another round of bubbles and a crash a couple years from now.
As the European Union grapples with a lingering crisis over how to keep Greece from defaulting,
Christian Gattiker, Chief Strategist and Head of Research at Julius Baer, added his voice to those seeing the adjustment of interest rates stretching past the end of this year. “The sharp increase in yields does not represent a buying opportunity. Capital preservation remains the name of the game, so buy anything but European sovereign bonds.”
In the second clip,
Jeremy Beckwith, Director of Manager Research for Morningstar UK, expects QE in Europe to stretch out at least another year and a half and keep yields, which fell as low as 5bp to remain low for at least a year.
He also said that long-term investors should avoid these bonds because, “You’re going to lose money in real terms.”
Beckwith agreed with other observers who have warned of a lack of liquidity in bonds and that this will increase the volatility of market moves in either direction.
This writer would note that bank lobbyists have been using the liquidity argument to call for extended sloth in implementing the Volcker rule, which was enacted as part of Dodd-Frank to contain the risk of another banking crisis.
Next,
Lothar Mentel, CIO at Tatton Investment Management, extends the logic of the previous comments to a bearish view of equities, observing “rate-rise anxiety” akin to the “taper tantrum” of two years ago and finding volatility in the bond market spilling over into equities because, “Clients haven’t gotten that kind of appetite for risk.”
This writer would note that all of these views serve as reminders that even if the Fed were finally to act to raise interest rates, the other central banks are still pursuing very accommodative monetary policies.
Ben Lichtenstein, President of Traders Audio, is surprised to see interest rate futures moving through five points on a daily basis and contends that this represents anticipation of a Fed move to raise rates.
This writer would note that other commentators have questioned whether the Fed will move at all this year, so that rather the market is taking over, and there is the potential for a destabilizing spike in rates, especially given the observed illiquidity in the bond markets.
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